The Influence Factors Of The Market Price Of Agricultural Products And Prediction Research

The development of market economy is inseparable from price adjustment,and the price affects the optimization and distribution of resources.Therefore,price changes can be regarded as one of the important factors of market stability.In the price of all commodities,the price of agricultural products is the most important one,which explores the factors that influence the price fluctuation of agricultural products,and studies the fluctuation rule of agricultural prices from a quantitative perspective,and explores reasonable agricultural products price forecasting methods,which can provide data support for the further development and improvement of the price system of agricultural products market.In this paper,the trend and basic characteristics of the fluctuation of agricultural products in China are analyzed,and the fluctuation of the price of several kinds of agricultural products is briefly introduced in recent years.And then combined with cobweb model and the theory of supply and demand,the qualitative analysis of the main factors influencing the price fluctuation of pork and eggs,and then respectively using the error correction model and vector auto-regression model of factors influencing the fluctuations in the price of pork and eggs in Fujian province for quantitative analysis,find out the significant influence factors.Based on the correlation test,unit root test,cointegration test,etc.In order to realize the mean regression model,vector auto-regressive model and grey forecasting model to forecast the price of pork and eggs in Fujian province,and compares the prediction precision of the model.The basic conclusion of the article:First,the key factor in the price fluctuations of the agricultural market in our country is the change in the price of the produce,and the cost factors are very important;Based on the analysis of the factors influencing the fluctuation of pork price in Fujian province,the factors influencing the influence of the price of piglets are the price of piglets,the price of live chicken and the feed price of the breeding pig.The main influencing factors for the fluctuation of egg price in Fujian province are the price of corn and the price of chicken eggs.Second.The forecast effect of mean regression model in the forecasting research method for agricultural market price in China is relatively good,which can meet expectations.Respectively,the prediction accuracy of the mean regression model of pork prices in Fujian is more than 95%,the prediction accuracy of the vector self-regression model reaches 80%,and the prediction accuracy of the grey prediction model reaches 95%.In Fujian province,the prediction accuracy of the regression model is 90%,the accuracy of the vector auto-regressive model is 85%,and the prediction accuracy of the grey prediction model reaches 90%.In view of the research conclusion,put forward in this paper,the Fujian agricultural product market regulation set up in Fujian production supply safeguard mechanism,perfect the livestock market system in Fujian province and become the passive control to active regulation and control,etc.The corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.