Analysis Of The Influencing Factors Of The Evolution Of Fiscal Expenditure Structure

Fiscal expenditure structure of China has been deeply changed with the corresponding economic structure developed since the Open-up and Reform Policy has been implemented 40 years.The change is going to be scrutinized by perspectives on industrial and demographic structure by examining the inherent influence and law of the evolution of fiscal expenditure structure from the perspective of economic structure,industrial structure and population structure changes.According to the nature of the fiscal expenditure's function,the expenditure can be divided into three categories:general administrative expenditure,economic construction expenditure and social service expenditure.The proportion of economic construction expenditure dropped significantly from 1978 to 2017,and the proportion of social service expenditure(including social security,cultural and educational expenditures)continued to rise after surpassing the proportion of economic construction expenditure in 2008.This paper researches the phenomenon and long-term trends that the proportion of social service expenditures increases by examining the laws and trends of fiscal structure changes in OECD countries comprehensively.There are three determinable elements affecting the structural changes of fiscal expenditure under the conditions of certain institutional factors:the level of economic development,the industrial structure and the demographic structure.The result of the empirical test on changes and trends of China's fiscal expenditure structure shows that the level of economic development and demographic changes has a significant impact on China's fiscal expenditure structure.For example,China's fiscal expenditure will benefit from the improvement of economic development level,the increase in the number of adolescents will reduce the expenditure,especially in general administrative expenditures.Besides,the aging of the population will force the government to increase its expenditure,such as in social service expenditures and general administrative expenditures.In addition,the increase on proportion of tertiary industry of total GDP,which is normally considered as industrial transfer and upgrade,has limited impact on fiscal expenditure structure.At the same time,it can be speculated that with the subsequent changes of the three variables,the proportion of social service expenditure in China's fiscal expenditure structure will further increase.This essay argues that the time of turning point when the"social service expenditure" will exceed the "economic construction expenditure".Currently,China's fiscal expenditure changing is in the middle-and-late changing period,which means the structure turns of fiscal expenditure from the construction oriented to the social service oriented.Thus,the fiscal expenditure is facing a "structural turning point".This is an inevitable trend of changes in the structure of expenditures,but it is not appropriate to arrive too early.It is because economic construction expenditure and social service expenditure are expenditure items in the fiscal expenditure that balance the output and promote consumption.According to the calculations in this paper,if the social service expenditure includes social security and cultural and educational security expenditures,the fiscal expenditure turning point has arrived in 2008;if the technology expenditure is regarded as the investment or productive expenditure,the turning point has not arrived yet.In the meanwhile,due to the large regional development differences in China,this paper conducts an empirical study on the relationship between economic development stage,industrial structure,population structure and fiscal expenditure structure in different regions,and draws different financial expenditures in each provincial administrative region.In the end,the essay draws the following suggestions:Firstly,from the macro aspect,it is crucial to make a considerable prediction of the fiscal expenditure structure transformation,in order to forecast the "turning point" of China's PEC.Secondly,the government should make some regulations or economic strategies to avoid the premature arrival of the point,because entering the welfare society too early will negatively inhibit the manufacturing industry,increasing the tax burden of enterprises,and at the same time crowding out productive investment.Third,along with the changes in the structure of fiscal expenditures,it is necessary to adjust the structure of fiscal revenues so that the taxation is shifted from indirect taxes to direct income-based income structures,thereby making the tax system fairer and improving the enthusiasm of employees and enterprises.Therefore,in terms of fiscal expenditure structure,all regions and regions are constantly adjusting and optimizing.China needs to gradually form a fiscal expenditure structure that conforms to the local development stage,economic development status and sustainable requirements of the country.