Research On Influencing Factors And Measurement Of China’s Sovereign Debt Risk

Since the beginning of the 21st century,world sovereign debt defaults have occurred one after another.On May 24,2017,China’s sovereign credit rating was lowered by Moody’s Investors Service.On September 21,2017,Standard&Poor’s announced that it also lowered its sovereign credit rating.Therefore,to prevent sovereign debt crisis,it is of great practical significance to study China’s sovereign debt risk.This paper takes China’s sovereign debt risk as the research object,and divides the sovereign debt risk into sovereign internal debt risk and sovereign foreign debt risk,taking the influence factor of China’s sovereign debt risk and China’s sovereign debt risk as the main research content.A detailed analysis of China’s sovereign foreign debt risk and sovereign internal debt risk,and in-depth study of the influencing factors that trigger China’s sovereign debt risk and the probability of sovereign debt default.This paper cuts into two aspects:sovereign foreign debt risk and sovereign internal debt risk.The quantitative analysis method,qualitative analysis method,empirical research method,literature research method and comparative analysis method are used to study the status quo and influencing factors of China’s sovereign credit risk.The research in this paper finds that China’s debt risk is generally controllable,and sovereign debt default will not occur in China.China’s sovereign domestic debt risk is controllable,and the loss of foreign exchange reserves and the rise of short-term foreign debt are the reasons for the risk of sovereign foreign debt.This paper provides policy recommendations for the resolution of China’s sovereign debt risk through the study of the impact and measurement of China’s sovereign debt risk in the post-financial era.From a micro perspective,China should vigorously develop the sovereign credit rating industry.From a macro perspective,on the one hand,China should optimize its economic structure;on the other hand,China should attach importance to the management of foreign exchange reserves and steadily advance the process of RMB internationalization.