RMB Exchange Rate,Third Country Effect And Chinese OFDI

Since the 1990s,China has actively advocated multilateralism and openness,adhered to the concept of win-win cooperation and encouraged Chinese enterprises to increase OFDI.For this reason,many scholars have discussed the effect of Chinese OFDI,and the effect of exchange rate on Chinese OFDI is one of the issues that scholars have been studying in depth.Traditional research frameworks on the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on China's FDI usually only consider the respective factors of the two countries,generally ignoring the impact of the surrounding third countries.However,the increasing number of host countries makes the international relations facing China's FDI more and more complicated.The influence of the third country effect on China's FDI needs to be paid attention to.Therefore,from a spatial perspective,this paper establishes a spatial econometric model to empirically study the impact of the RMB exchange rate and the third country effect on Chinese OFDI.Firstly,this paper reviews the literature on the impact of exchange rate and third-country effect on FDI,and discusses the mechanism of exchange rate and third-country effect on FDI.Then on this basis,the third-party effect is introduced into the traditional exchange rate impact of the external direct research framework,constructed the spatial autoregressive model and spatial Durbin model empirical research.Taking the construction of"one belt along the way" as a major strategic measure for China's opening up,this paper studies the impact of RMB exchange rate and third country effect on Chinese OFDI from two aspects:the panel data of the world and the panel data along the "one belt and one road" panel data.The empirical results show that:(1)Exchange rate is one of the important factors affecting Chinese OFDI,the specific impact is that the appreciation of the RMB will promote Chinese OFDI,and the depreciation of the RMB will inhibit Chinese OFDI.(2)there is a significant positive third country OFDI effect in China's outward FDI.Specifically,the growth of Chinese OFDI in a particular country will promote China's investment in its neighboring countries,which proves that Chinese OFDI is a"mutually beneficial and win-win" model rather than a "zero-sum game".(3)Renminbi appreciation promotes China's investment in the third country,and because of the complementary OFDI effect of the third country,the increase of investment in the third country further promotes China's direct investment in the host country,which shows that the appreciation of the Renminbi has a positive feedback effect.(4)Because of the substitution effect of Chinese OFDI,the exchange rate effect of the third country is negative.(5)By comparing the empirical regression results before and after the introduction of the third country effect,it is found that the traditional method of studying the impact of exchange rate on the exchange rate exaggerated.In addition,the panel data of the "one belt along the way" are basically consistent with the empirical conclusions of the world panel data,and the third country effect has greater impact on China's outward FDI.In view of the above conclusions,this paper puts forward some policy recommendations.