A Study On The Asymmetric Effects Of China's National Debt Burden On Economic Growth

National debt is an indispensable fiscal policy tool for the state to implement macroeconomic regulation and control,and plays a vital role in the construction and development of China's market economy.From the perspective of fiscal policy,national debt has the function of making up the fiscal deficit,raising construction funds,and regulating economic operations.From the perspective of the function of making up the fiscal deficit,the issuance of national debt will not lead to inflation compared with the overdraft of the bank,and the funds for the subscription of the national debt are generally the funds freed from the resources of the social funds,so the economic impact is small.However,excessive reliance on the issuance of national debt to make up for the fiscal deficit will lead to a high debt,which will eventually lead to a vicious circle of fiscal revenue and expenditure,and excessive concentration of social funds will reduce the level of social investment and consumption.This has a negative effect on the national economy.This paper explores the impact of the national debt burden on the national level and the interprovincial level,focusing on the overall and taking into account the differences between the provinces.Using the smooth transformation model and the analysis framework of the panel smooth transformation model,the mechanism of action between the two is further combed and analyzed,which has strong theoretical and practical significance.Starting from the basis of the neoclassical growth model and the endogenous growth model,this paper points out the effect of savings and investment on economic growth,and then analyzes the mechanism of the impact of the national debt burden on savings and investment,thus laying the theoretical foundation for empirical analysis.Then,using the corresponding measurement model-the national debt burden as the conversion variable smooth transformation model and the panel smooth transformation model,the empirical research on the impact of the national debt burden on the economic growth at the national and inter-provincial levels is carried out.The conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)At the national level,the role of national debt burden in promoting economic growth is in a low range.When the national debt burden rate is higher than the positional parameter,the national debt burden still promotes economic growth,but compared with the case where the conversion variable is smaller than the positional parameter,its promotion effect on economic growth is much smaller,that is,the burden of excessive national debt.It will reduce the role of the national debt burden in promoting economic growth.At present,the burden rate of China's national debt is already much higher than the positional parameter.Therefore,it is subject to the excessive burden of national debt,and its promotion of economic growth is greatly weakened.(2)At the provincial level,the national debt burden has a positive effect on economic growth and is asymmetric.The stage shift of the national debt burden in different regions and different periods will lead to regional heterogeneity and time-varying response coefficient of R&D bond debt rate to economic growth rate.As a representative province of Shanghai,the role of the national debt burden on Shanghai's economic growth is still positive,but it has entered the lowest value.The burden of national debt in Gansu Province is located in the low-mechanism zone,and the national debt burden has a significant effect on Gansu's economic growth,and the response coefficient is the largest.The burden of Beijing's national debt has shifted from a low-burden phase to a high-burden phase over time,and the response coefficient has shifted from a high range to a low range.As the burden of Liaoning's national debt has eased,the response coefficient has increased significantly,reflecting the significant contribution of the low national debt burden to economic growth.Finally,the innovations of this paper are as follows:(1)Based on the panel smooth transition model(PSTR),the asymmetric impact of the national debt burden is analyzed.In this paper,the panel smooth transformation model(PSTR)is used to investigate the asymmetric impact mechanism of the national debt burden on economic growth by using the national debt burden as a transformation variable.Through analysis,it is found that there is a relatively fast conversion mechanism between different national debt burdens,and The response coefficient of China's national debt burden rate to economic growth rate changes with the change of technology gap in different regions at different times.Therefore,the response coefficient of China's national debt burden to economic growth rate is time-varying and regional heterogeneity.In order to save space,this paper selects the regions in Beijing,Shanghai,Gansu and Liaoning provinces that represent the different national debt burden stages in China.(2)Taking into account the impact of the national debt burden at the national and inter-provincial levels on economic growth.In order to better study the specific problems of our country,especially in the current situation where the development of the eastern and western provinces is becoming more and more uneven and the gap is getting bigger,we not only focus on the national level,but also expand the research object to the inter-provincial data of our country.Investigate the impact of the national debt burden on the economic growth of the provinces,and further sort out the mechanism of action between the two,which will help raise awareness of the role of national debt and reasonable scale.The empirical study shows that the national level of national debt has played a role in promoting economic growth.However,at the provincial level,the situation of the provinces is quite different.The national debt burden has regional heterogeneity and time-varying on the economic growth of the provinces,which further confirms the balance between the countries.The importance of the level and the provincial level.