The Research On The Influence Of The RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation On China-US Trade Balance Under The Smooth Transition Regression Model

the US government has always blamed that the unreasonable RMB exchange rate results in the high trade surplus between China and the United States.Therefore,over the years,it has repeatedly pressured China to urge the RBM to appreciate through various means.After China's continuous reform of the exchange rate system,the RMB exchange rate has become more and more market-oriented.Especially after the “8.11 exchange reform” in 2015,the two-way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate was more prominent.On March 23,2018,the US government decided to impose tariffs on a large number of goods imported from China,while limiting China's cross-border investment in the United States.Subsequently,China implemented corresponding counter-sanction measures.China-US trade frictions have intensified.Therefore,under the new background of China's economic slowdown,while the volatility of the RMB exchange rate fluctuates more violently and the frequent trade disputes between China and the United States emerge again and again,will the impact of the RMB exchange rate on China-US trade balances be new.And how to make more flexible policy to adjust more effectively the China-US trade balance is still a topic with strong timeliness and practical significance.This paper incorporates the RMB exchange rate level and vertical volatility into the smooth transition regression(STR)model,and deeply examines the relationship between the US-China trade balance and the RMB exchange rate through the STR model.The study found that the RMB exchange rate has a significant asymmetry in the transmission of China-US trade balance;when the RMB exchange rate volatility is less than 0.02%,exchange rate fluctuations have a certain role in promoting China's exports to the United States,when the exchange rate volatility is greater than 0.02 %,exchange rate fluctuations will have a significant negative impact on exports;the appreciation of the RMB has no significant inhibitory effect on China's exports to the United States,and the depreciation of the RMB has little effect on exports;the impact of US consumption levels on exports is significantly greater than the exchange rate.The impact of the RMB exchange rate on China's imports from the United States will produce significant differences at different levels of economic development.Therefore,China and the United States should objectively understand the real reasons for the high trade surplus.When formulating relevant policies,China should start from market expectations,enterprises' pricing according to the market,trade structure,etc.,enhance the effectiveness of exchange rate regulation,and improve the ability of corporate risk response,to better cope with the adverse effects of China-US trade friction on China's exports.