Research On Influencing Factors Of Economic Growth In Yunnan Province Cities Based On Spatial Panel Model

With the steady progress of the national strategy "One Belt,One Road",Yunnan Province,which is positioned as the radiation center for South Asia and Southeast Asia,being playing an increasingly important role.Although the GDP growth rate of Yunnan is in the forefront of China,there are significant differences in the economic growth among the 16 cities of Yunnan.On the whole,the level of economic growth of the cities is higher in the central part,lower in the surrounding areas,with the gap being relatively large.For example,the per capita GDP of the city with the best economic growth in Yunnan is about 4.6 times that of the lowest city in 2016.Can those phenomena indicate that the gap of economic growth between Yunnan cities is widening? Does the economic growth of the whole province have agglomeration effect of space? Will the economic growth of one city affect its neighboring areas? What are the main factors affecting the economic growth of Yunnan? These are all the main problems which this article hopes to explore,and also the long-term balanced of the province’s economic growth deserve to pay attention to.Firstly,this paper calculates the difference of per capita GDP of the cities from 2007 to 2016,with finding that the difference is increasing,which shows that the absolute difference of the economic growth between the cities is gradually expanding in the past years.By measuring the relative difference,it finds that the relative difference is in a sharp decline followed by a slight rise,which shows that although the absolute difference of economic growth level is expanding,the relative difference shows a narrowing in general.It fully illustrates that in the past ten years,the economic development speed of the relatively backward cities have begun to accelerate,with being higher than that of the economically developed cities.This shows that although there is great difference of the economic growth between Yunnan cities,the difference has a trend of gradually narrowing,but the speed of the trend is not so fast.Secondly,through the quadrant map,it can be saw that the cities in central Yunnan have been in the economically developed and sub-developed regions with the unique advantages.Which are geographical position of the eastern Yunnan Plain and convenient transportation conditions around the core leader Kunming.And the economic development shows a spatial agglomeration.Then through the global spatial autocorrelation analysis,it is found that there is a positive spatial correlation in the economic development of Yunnan cities.This indicates that the economic development of Yunnan has spatial dependence.Then the local Moran index is further discussed,which of Kunming and Yuxi are positive and significant at the level of 1%.It proves that there is a strong positive spatial autocorrelation once again,with showing that the economic development of Yunnan cities has spatial agglomeration effect.On the whole,the economic development of one city will affect adjacent areas through spatial spillover effect.Then,through the establishment and estimation of the spatial panel model,it can be concluded that the employment to population ratio,the total retail sales of consumer goods,the urbanization rate and the proportion of secondary and tertiary industries are all positive,which accords with the expected assumption and passes the significance test.This shows that the main factors affecting the economic development of Yunnan cities are employment to population ratio,consumption amount,urbanization rate and industrial structure.Finally,according to the results of the study,reasonable suggestions and measures are put forward to promote the further healthy development of the economy of Yunnan: reform and innovation,promote employment growth;expand domestic demand,promote consumption growth;optimize the environment,improve urbanization rate;carry forward advantages,promote industrial upgrading.