A Study On Investment In Antiviral Drugs Storage Based On Real Options Approach

In the past,on a global scale,the outbreak of various types of influenza viruses and the occasional lethal performance of cross-species transmission of influenza viruses have raised concerns about possible emergence of large influenza.The major influenza prevention plan is the key to effective prevention of new influenza.Many countries are developing large-scale influenza emergency plans.The scientific community and industry are researching and developing better preventive strategies and more effective vaccines and drugs.In order to be able to provide anti-virus flu drugs to infected people in a timely manner,the government or region needs to store antiviral drugs in advance.The storage of antiviral drugs by government or regional decision makers is an important decision with huge investment and far-reaching impact.It has helped significantly in the reduction of mortality during the large flu and the loss of productivity.How decision makers make antiviral drug storage decisions has become an increasingly important issue.The solution of this issue is of great significance to the formulation and adjustment of policies related to large-scale influenza prevention.Based on the economic population data of the Netherlands and the "Asian flu",this article establishes a dynamic transmission model and studies the storage decisions of antiviral drugs through real options.Considering the clinical attack rates(CARs),the impact of anti-viral drugs on the investment decision-making when the coverage of anti-viral drugs covering specific age groups and people without specific targeted treatment changes.And analyzed the impact of the volatility of the large-scale flu outbreak probability on the investment threshold of real options.Real options method is a very effective method in investment under uncertainty.This article uses the real option method to evaluate the dynamic epidemic model.The conclusion is as follows:The reduction in productivity loss caused by the intervention of antiviral drug storage and the saved life value are the main factors influencing decision making.In different investment strategies for different groups of people,the investment decisions of people covering different ages are different.Among them,the investment decision threshold covering only the elderly is the lowest.In the investment decision-making of different scales of anti-viral drugs without specific targeted treatment for the population,the decision-makers prefer to choose the strategy that covers the largest number of people.The investment threshold of real option method increases with the increase of uncertainty.When investors are risk averse,investors' risk aversion strengthens the decision to postpone investment.