The Analysis Of The Housing Prices Change And Consumption Behaviors Of Urban Residents In China

Since the real estate reform in 1998,the growth of housing prices,on the one hand,the real estate has developed into an important industry that can not be ignored in our country,so the change of housing prices has an important impact on our economy.On the other hand,housing has become the largest part of the wealth of urban residents.The fluctuation of housing prices also has a significant impact on micro-individuals.However,the real estate market now exposes many problems,and the final result of the rapid rising housing prices may poke the real estate bubble,which will lead to more serious economic and social problems.To avoid these problems,on the one hand,the government needs to control the excessive growth of housing prices,on the other hand,it should develop financial and credit markets to better promote real estate to play its wealth effect to stimulate consumption.Therefore,it is very important to study the impact of housing price changes on consumption.In order to deeply understand the impact of real estate price fluctuation on consumption,the second chapter of this paper studies and combs a large number of domestic and foreign literature,and analyses and compares the wealth effect and Crowding-out Effect of real estate in different countries.We focus on the analysis of variables such as the growth rate of housing prices,the growth rate of average consumption of urban residents and the growth rate of average income growth in the past ten years.In the third chapter,the consumption theory is reviewed and sorted out,and the life cycle-permanent income theory is taken as the theoretical basis of this study.In order to further understand the current consumption situation of real estate and urban residents in China,this paper collects data on the average price of urban housing,consumption and income of urban residents in 3 1 provinces from 2007 to 2016.On this basis,the relationship between house price and consumption in China is studied by using Hollingsworth's multiple regression model(2014).Considering that China is a large country with large area,large population and large regional differences,the fourth chapter of this paper conducts a regional study,comparing the relationship between housing prices and consumption in northwest,northeast,central and eastern regions respectively.In order to get reliable conclusions and avoid the phenomenon of pseudo-regression,this paper adopts a variety of panel unit root test and cointegration test,and confirms that the random effect model is the most suitable one through Hausman test.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:Firstly,income changes have a significant impact on the Northwest,Northeast and Eastern regions,while the current income of the central region does not show a significant statistical relationship with consumption.Secondly,from a national perspective,there is no significant statistical relationship between the impact coefficient of housing price changes on consumption,that is,the total effect of real estate in China is not clear,and the degree of wealth effect and Crowding-out Effect of real estate can not be judged.Thirdly,regional studies show that although house prices in Northwest China are relatively low,the overall effect of real estate in this region is wealth effect,that is,the wealth effect of real estate is greater than its crowding out effect.Fourthly,there is a significant negative correlation between the previous housing price and current consumption in Northeast China,which means that the total effect of real estate in Northeast China is crowding out and the crowding out effect of real estate is lagging behind.