| The insufficient consumption demand is an important problem in the economic development of a country.Since the Reform and Opening up,Chinese economy has experienced a rapid growth phase,despite the current slowdown in economic growth,but high growth was even created a world miracle of economic growth it is an indisputable fact.However,the strong investment and export are the main reasons for rapid growth,and the impetus for consumption has not been prominent.Especially since China's economy has entered the New Mormal,the insufficient consumption demand is difficult to form an important force to stimulate economic growth,while the overcapacity problem has become increasingly prominent on the supply.The contradiction between consumption and production,demand and supply has seriously restricted the development of Chinese economy.In order to further promote the economic development of China,on November 10,2015,Xi Jinping first proposed the "Structural Reform of the Supply Front",Xi Jinping pointed out,China economy should enlarge the aggregate demand moderately and strengthen the supply side structural reform.The goverment should improve the quality and efficiency of the supply system,enhance the power of sustained economic growth,and promote the realization of the overall social leap the level of productivity in china.In November 11,2015,Xi Jinping stressed that "nurturing new supply,new power,expanding domestic demand." The Structural Reform of the Supply Front is an important development of the socialist political and economic theory with Chinese characteristics in the new period.The Structural Reform of the Supply Front not only stresses the transformation and upgrading of the supply side,but also emphasizes the role of expanding demand,especially expanding consumption demand.Although the government has constantly stressed the importance of consumption demand,China's consumption demand has been difficult to keep the pace with the economic growth.While consumption demand is weak,Chinese economy faces another severe challenge,namely the rapid,substantial and irrational rise in prices in all regions,especially in first tier cities and some second tier cities.The rapid and substantial increase in housing prices has not only aroused strong concern from the society,but also aroused great attention of the Central Committee of the cpc.In the face of rising housing prices,Xi Jinping pointed out:"the house is used to live,not for speculation." The speech reflects the point of Central Committee on the development of the real estate industry.The core idea is to control the irrational rise in prices.The development of the real estate industry is related to millions of households,and it is related to the economic development of the whole country.At present,China is experinecing economic and social transformation of the overall period,the house price rising will pose an impact effect on the total consumption of residents and consumption structure.The macroeconomic operations will be influenced too.To research these problems has vital importance to China's current economic development.It is of great importance to expand demand and provides a more powerful theoretical basis for the government to control house price rising.This paper also tries to answer the above questions.Specifically,the contents of the following chapters are arranged in this paper:The first chapter is the introduction.This chapter mainly introduces the background and significance about housing prices and consumption,at the same time the contents and methods of this research are briefly described.Finally this chapter describes the innovations of this paper,also points out the research insufficient and the directions for further research.The second chapter is the literature review.This chapter mainly reviews the existing literature and then based on the existing literature and combined with the deficiency of the existing literature to find out the value of this paper,which in order to improve the current research status.The third chapter is the description of the present situation of the house price and consumption in China.From the current situation description,this chapter mainly reviews the current situation from the commercial housing average sales price and sales area,the completion of investment value and real estate average numbers of employees.The results show that China's housing prices continued to rise rapidly in recent years.This chapter depicts the reality of inadequate consumption from two angles;one is the consumption as a share of GDP continued to decline.The second is that the average annual growth rate of the per capita consumption expenditure of urban residents is lower than the per capita disposable income.But we believe that the rapid rise in housing prices in recent years is a factor that can not be ignored.The fourth chapter is the static analysis of the impact mechanism of housing price rise on consumption.Subsequently,this chapter constructs a theoretical model and found that rapid increases in housing prices will lead to increased spending on real estate for residents,and will have an adverse effect on spending on non real estate commodities.Macro,rapid price increases will have a siphon effect,caused by the transfer of private wealth,resulting in the deterioration of income distribution of residents,ultimately is not conducive to the long-term stability and development of the economic and social.The fifth chapter is the dynamic investigation of the impact of rising housing prices on consumption.In this chapter,we construct a dynamic general equilibrium model including residents,non real estate enterprises,real estate sector and the government.In the dynamic analysis,we simulate the change of the technology and the consumer's preference for the non real estate sector and the impact of the various sectors of the economic system.Excessive development of the real estate industry,the rapid rise in house prices has contributed to the development of the real estate market.At the same time,excessive development of the real estate will produce serious adverse effects on the development of the non real estate sector and consumption,but also adversely affect the operation of the entire economic system.The sixth chapter is the empirical analysis of the impact of rising housing prices on consumption.This chapter is based on provincial panel data during 1999?2013.Based on the study of the impact of house price on the total consumption,the current house price increase has no significant impact on the consumer.In the short term,rising house price has significant wealth effect,but in the long run,the crowding out effect of rising house price is gradually appearing.Based on the study of the impact of house price on the consumption structure,housing prices will drive housing consumption of the residents,but reduce the demand for non housing and increase the non essential consumption through the wealth effect.Finally,in terms of regions,in the eastern and northeastern regions,housing prices has little effect on non housing consumption of the residents.But in the western region,housing prices can significantly increase non housing consumption of the residents.The seventh chapter is the summary of the full text and research prospects.Using the theoretical model and empirical analysis,this paper draws the following conclusions.The first conclusion is housing prices will bring the consumption transfer and siphon effect.The second conclusion is housing prices is not conducive to the healthy development of the economy and the consumption of residents.The third conclusion is the effect of housing prices on the total consumption of residents has short-term and long-term effects,also has differences on consumption structure and regional differences.Accordingly,on how to release the consumer energy,we can start from the following aspects.First,the government should release the monopoly supply of land.Second,the government should limit the real estate prices and increase transfer payments to the residents.Third,the government should pay attention to the social distribution.Fourth,the real estate policy should be adapted to local conditions.Finally,this chapter also points out the research deficiencies and future research direction.The comprehensive consideration of the supply side and demand side effects on housing prices expands the current research field of housing prices.This paper also uses the theoretical model to analyze the impact of rising housing prices on consumption,constructing the computable general equilibrium model and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to discuss the static and dynamic effects of real estate price changes.In the empirical analysis,this paper also takes into account the impact of price fluctuations on the overall consumption of residents and the heterogeneity of consumption structure,but also analyzes the regional impact of the consumption of residents.The combination of theoretical model and empirical test also makes the conclusions more convincing.From the practical point of view,the conclusions of this paper provides a theoretical support for the government to regulate the excessively high prices,prevent real estate market systemic risk,has a strong practical value.however,the empirical analysis is mainly used in the macro data,If used the micro data,for example,combined with the micro enterprise data may make the research more targeted,which is also the space for further optimization. |
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