Convergence Analysis Of Economic Growth In Shandong Province Based On Statistical Analysis

Since the reform and opening up,China’s economy has developed rapidly and its comprehensive national strength has been continuously enhanced,at the same time,due to differences in natural geographical conditions and economic base,the economic development of various regions is not balanced.At this stage,the main contradiction in our society is reflected in the regional dimension,which is the imbalance of economic development between regions in China.The imbalance in economic development will affect the healthy and sustainable development of China’s economy.Therefore,both the state and local governments attach great importance to it and take a number of important measures to promote the coordinated development of the regional economy.The economic development of Shandong Province can be a microcosm of China’s economic development and has a strong representativeness.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the changing characteristics and trends of economic development in various cities of Shandong Province,analyze the important factors affecting economic growth and narrowing the gap,and provide reference for formulating relevant policies to promote the healthy and coordinated development of cities.The main content of this paper is divided into the following five aspects:In the first aspect,the definition of the concept of economic growth convergence,its connotation is the economic concept used to measure the difference in economic development between regions.The index analysis method is used to study the σconvergence of economic development using the per capita GDP index of Shandong Province from 2000 to 2017.The results show that there is σ convergence in the economic growth of Shandong Province during the research period,but it has periodic characteristics,specifically,it can be divided into three stages:2000-2003,2003-2012,and 2012-2017,of which 2003-2012 is the most significant,indicating that the gap narrowing between cities is the fastest,this is closely related to the proposal of coordinating regional coordinated development strategies at the time.This strategy plays an important role in narrowing regional disparities.The second aspect,based on the above-mentioned division,dividing into four periods of 2000-2003,2003-2012,2012-2017,and 2000-2017.The method of cross-section regression analysis and dynamic panel data model is used to analyze the absolute β convergence of economic growth in various cities of Shandong Province.The results show that there is significant absolute β convergence in 2003-2012 and 2000-2017,there is no absolute β convergence in 2000-2003,and the absolute βconvergence is not significant in 2012-2017.In the third aspect,on the basis of the above analysis,the 2003-2017 is divided into three periods:2003-2007,2007-2012,and 2012-2017,introduce five explanatory variables of industrialization level,foreign investment,financial related ratio,fiscal expenditure,and fixed asset investment to establish a multiple linear regression model,using stepwise regression analysis to analyze the conditional β convergence of economic growth in Shandong Province.The analysis results show that there is no conditional β convergence in 2007-2012,in the 2003-2007 and 2012-2017 time periods,there are conditional β convergence,industrialization level and foreign investment are the main influencing factors.Based on this,this paper proposes policy recommendations for innovative economic development model,optimization of foreign investment environment,strengthening of government economic support and policy support,and provides reference for the formulation of relevant policies.In the fourth aspect,this paper changes the traditional classification method,adopts the cluster analysis method,divides the cities of Shandong Province into two categories according to the per capita GDP index,and studies the club convergence of economic growth.The results show that the convergence of the second type is stronger than the σ convergence and absolute β convergence of the first economic region,this further shows that areas with weaker economic development have stronger convergence than regions with stronger economic development.In the fifth aspect,the dynamic evolution process based on non-parametric estimation is used to describe the dynamic evolution process of Shandong’s economic development,verifying the conclusions drawn above and visually demonstrating the phase characteristics of economic growth convergence.In addition,based on the combination of gray GM(1,1)prediction model and state transition matrix of Markov chai-n,the coefficient of variation of economic development in various cities of Shandon-g Province is predicted,the results show that the model has high accuracy and is suitable for medium and long-term prediction of the coefficient of economic growth of various cities in Shandong Province.