Study On The Grey Model Of Shaanxi Science & Technology Development

The development of science & technology greatly promotes the development of Society. With the development of Society, it is especially important in academic significance and practical value applying techniques and models of quantitative economy to research of region- science & technology estate and forecast of science & technology development trend.Region-science & technology system is a complicated huge system,the study of which is a great challenge.In 1982, Prof.J.L.Deng founded the Grey System Theory, which studies the uncertain system on the "small sample", "poor information", i.e. "partial information known, partial information unknown" we have. Through creating and excavating the limited information, we could understand the real world, describe its evolvement rule and grasp its running behavior exactly. It has also given us another way to build the economic model with limited data. In 20 years' development, Grey System has been applied in many scientific fields including industry, agriculture, society, economy, environment, education, military affairs and finance, etc. It also has solved large mount of practical problems concerned with production, life and scientific research. During the time, Grey System itself has formed as a new subject of a self-contained structure system through incessant development. It is full of vital force and foreground that is increasingly recognized by internal and international countries.Firstly, this paper introduces the basal methods of Grey System Theory and its applicability in the scientific & technology system, and secondly studies and analyses the development of science & technology of Shaanxi province in many ways. Through processing the original data and establishing the grey model,having a specific quantitative research with the Overall function,the coordinate function of system and Correlate relationship,Causal relationship and dynamic relationship between system factors.And then have a comprehensive understanding of the current strength in science & technology of Shaanxi province as well as the role in promoting economic growth. Firstly, having an anlysis of the effect of the current science & technology progress of Shaanxi province on promoting economic growth by using the improved grey model and pointing out the problems; Secondly,having an evaluation of the science & technology competitive level of 10 selected provinces in recent years by using the improved gray clustering method, then determining the competition of Shaanxi province in science & technology; Thirdly,having an analysis of the correlation of the science & technology indicators by using hierarchic grey incidence analysis synthetic models,then getting the main factors as related with the science & technology of Shaanxi province. Finally,giving some advice on the future trends in the development of science & technology of Shaanxi province.The innovation of this paper includes the following three points: 1st. On the basis of traditional C-D production function, science & technology labors and funds inputs are respectively listed as one of the variables of Production function,and get the improved Production function model, and then analyzes the potential contribution rate of investment in science & technology to the growth of economy with Shaanxi Province.2nd. Having an evaluation of the science & technology competitive level of 10 elected provinces in recent years by using the improved gray clustering method, then determining the competition of Shaanxi province in science & technology.3rd. Establishing the index system with the Science & Technology System of Shaanxi province, and get the weight of science & technology indicators by Analytic Hierarchy Process. And then have an analysis of the correlation of the science & technology indicators by using hierarchic grey incidence analysis methods,then get the main factors as related with the science & technology development of Shaanxi province.