Research On The Relationship Between RMB Exchange Rate,Sino-us Trade Imbalance And US Manufacturing Unemployment Rate

At present,the trend of world economic globalization is increasingly developing,and countries and regions are further promoting economic cooperation and cultural exchanges.International trade,as an indispensable element of economic globalization,plays a crucial role in the social development of all countries.Changes in foreign trade always affect the economic conditions of various countries,and even affect the international status of their own people's living standards.It can be said that the foreign trade of a country is a double-edged sword,and how to use it to achieve advantages and avoid disadvantages has become a problem that countries around the world need to focus on.Since the reform and opening up,China has gradually opened its door to the world,strengthened international trade and sought the road of trade-driven development.Nowadays,as the world's second largest economy,the scale of China's foreign trade exchanges highlights the strength of China's productivity and the mutual benefit between China and other countries.As the representative of developed countries,the United States has a huge economy,and its foreign trade volume cannot be underestimated.The United States is internationally known for its high-end technology industry and financial industry.It mainly exports high-end manufacturing tradable.China,relying on its land resources and population advantages,mainly exports primanry processed goods.In recent years,trade between China and the United States has nmaintained an average annual grov,th rate of more than 15 percent.By the end of 2017,trade between China and the United States had reached $583.7 billion,a 233 times increase compared with the year of diplomatic ties.However,with the gradual increase of trade volume,there are more and more trade frictions between the two countries.The existence of Sino-US trade deficit leads to the continuous low employment rate of American manufacturing industry,which has been repeatedly mentioned.The trade relations between China and United States are deeply influenced by foreign trade policy of US,and the inauguration of the new US President trump has started a trade war with our country.The Trump administration's attempt to restrict imports by imposing tariffs on Chinese exports to the United States has drawn intense international attention.He has been criticized for what he calls blind"trade protectionism".He supported the idea that a series of measures like"hire American,buy American"can boost domestic industry and create jobs.In addition,the exchange rate issue is also one of the inevitable issues in international trade,and the act of naming China as a currency manipulator and cracking down on it undermines the existing trade situation.A trade war is not in the interests of either country or even the world.Therefore,it is of certain significance to use existing data to study the relationship between RMB exchange rate,Sino-US trade imbalance and US manufacturing unemployment rate to reflect the practical problems under the Crrent domestic and foreign background of domestic and foreign worries.This paper takes the impact of trade imbalance on a country's manufacturing employment as the research object,takes the reform of RMB exchange rate as the background,and adopts the method of combining theoretical research with empirical research to explore the relationship between exchange rate,international trade and employment.On the basis of previous studies,this paper constructs the theoretical model of the linkage of exchange rate fluctuations,trade balance and employment.And use trade data between United States and China from January 1994 to June 2018 to demonstrate the impact of trade deficit and other factors on a country's employment situation by empirical research method combining the employment data of American manufacturing industry.The main question to be addressed is:how does the trade deficit affect a country's employment?What role does exchange rate play in the transmission of trade imbalance to employment?Will it increase the transmission effect?This paper consists of five parts.The first part is the introduction.On the basis of introducing the research background and significance of the topic and introducing the development of Sino-US trade relations,it briefly summarizes the research methods and innovation and shortcomings of the paper.The second part is a literature review,sorting out the relevant studies of domestic and foreign scholars on the impact of trade balance on a country's employment and exchange rate fluctuations on trade balance and employment,comparing their different views and expounding the research perspective of this paper.The third part introduces the history of bilateral trade between China and the United States and the reform of RMB exchange rate system,briefly introduces the unemployment rate in various industries in the United States,and expounds the development background of the research object.The fourth part makes theoretical and empirical analysis of the transmission path between the three research objects.Through the establishment of VAR model,the empirical study took the real effective exchange rate of RMB,Sino-us trade surplus and US manufacturing unemployment rate as endogenous variables of the model,and put them into an interactive system to explore their interaction.Finally,the conclusion is drawn as follows:the change of the real effective exchange rate of RMB has a very limited impact on the Sino-us trade surplus and the unemployment rate of the US manufacturing industry,and all three variables are more affected by their own previous data.So the viewpoint that China's trade surplus continued to expand and American manufacturing high unemployment is due to the RMB exchange rate undervaluation is unreasonable.What's more,the existence of the trade surplus reflects the result of international division of labor between China and the United States,and the United States manufacturing high unemployment is due to its own industrial structure adjustment and high degree of mechanization.The Trump administration should face up to this problem and blindly implement the so-called"trade protection"will only have a negative impact on the global trade chain.