Cobweb Coupling Model Research On Supply, Demand And Price Of Land Circulation In Undeveloped Areas Based On Game Theory

With the development of rural revitalization strategy in countryside,land transfer as the main emphasis,its stability and development status is particularly important.Rural land circulation in undeveloped areas facing some problems at the present stage,such as the circulation market is not perfect,single participant,laws,regulations and relevant security system are not in place.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to analyze the game behavior of the participants in the land transfer in underdeveloped areas and to study the different regional transfer modes of land transfer.Contractor has two kinds of behaviors—the high price contract and the low price contract,farmer' individual choices has three behaviors—the cost price circulation,the circulation of by intermediary intervention and the expected price circulation.Those behaviors through extended dynamic game model can obtain the optimal strategy is {the high price contract,the circulation price of by intermediary intervention},and used the game matrix of expected revenue to verify.The cobweb model hypothesis is proposed on the basis of{the high price contract,the circulation price of by intermediary intervention},which held that convergent cobweb model apply to suburb of underdeveloped area,divergent cobweb model apply to outer suburban district of underdeveloped area,closed cobweb model apply to remote area of underdeveloped area.The supply,demand and price data of land circulation during 2013-2017 were obtained by Semi-structured interviews with head of townships and questionnaires of some farmers in 6 towns(Nancheng Street,Bei Wangzhuang Street,Shentou Town,Xia Tuanbao Town,Nan Yulin Town and Limin Town).Data stability test and Granger causality analysis are carried out with the vector auto-regression(VAR)model in EViews,and obtained the data fluctuation characteristics of supply,demand and price which is providing a basis for the coupling of cobweb model.The conclusion shows that different regional supply,demand quantity and transfer price are applicable to different cobweb coupling models under the precondition of suburb,outer suburban and remote area of underdeveloped area.According to different cobweb coupling model shows that implement regional management can effectively protect the farmer's benefits,improve the success rate of land transfer and promote the stable development of the transfer market.