Study On Long-term Formation Mechanism Of Commodity Housing Price In Large And Medium Cities Of China

With the increasing prosperity of the real estate market,the real estate price has also shown an overall upward trend.The price of commercial housing in some cities far exceeds the affordability of residents.In order to curb the excessive rise of housing prices,many local governments have introduced regulatory measures.Although these measures have some effect in the short term,they have not fundamentally solved the problem of rising housing prices,nor have they contributed to the establishment of a long-term mechanism for the healthy and stable development of the real estate market.Reasonable commodity housing price is an important index to build a livable city.It is the core goal of "no speculation in housing" and the basis of ensuring the healthy and stable development of commodity housing market.This paper analyses the longterm forming factors of commodity housing prices in large and medium-sized cities in China,and explores the long-term forming mechanism of commodity housing prices,which is of great significance for stabilizing commodity housing prices in the long term and establishing a longterm mechanism for the healthy and stable development of China’s housing industry.Firstly,based on the theory of price formation and the research results of scholars at home and abroad,combined with the development of China’s commodity housing market,this paper analyses the long-term forming factors of commodity housing prices in large and medium-sized cities in China,and puts forward the theoretical framework of the long-term forming mechanism of commodity housing prices in large and medium-sized cities in China.Secondly,based on the panel data of 35 large and medium-sized cities in China from 2002 to 2017,a multiple linear regression model is constructed to further explore the long-term formation mechanism of commodity housing prices in large and medium-sized cities in China.The research shows that the long-term forming factors of commodity housing price in large and medium-sized cities in China are: per capita GDP,money supply,urban population,land transaction price and residential construction area;without considering the lagging effect of various significant factors,the long-term static forming mechanism of commodity housing price in large and medium-sized cities in China is as follows: except for the negative effect of residential construction area,per capita GDP and money supply.Quantity,urban population,land transaction price and other factors have a positive effect on the long-term formation of commodity housing price.The order of effect of each factor on the current commodity housing price is: money supply(0.295)> urban population(0.254)> per capita GDP(0.178)> land transaction price(0.124)> residential construction area(0.095).At the same time,in order to consider the lagging effect of various significant factors on the fluctuation of commodity housing prices and make up for the deficiency of static regression analysis,this paper further constructs the PVAR dynamic panel model,which incorporates the lagging effect of commodity housing prices into the model.The results show that the long-term dynamic formation mechanism of commodity housing price in large and medium-sized cities in China is that the increase or increase of commodity housing price itself,per capita GDP,money supply,land transaction price,urban population and other factors have a significant effect on the rise of commodity housing price,while the increase of residential construction area can effectively restrain the rise of commodity housing price.The contribution degree of lag to the fluctuation of commodity housing price from big to small is: commodity housing price itself 45%,money supply 16.8%,per capita GDP 14.2%,urban population 9.8%,land transaction price 7.2%,residential construction area 7%.Comprehensive static and dynamic analysis results show that,in addition to the lagging effect of commodity housing price itself,money supply has the greatest impact on the long-term formation of commodity housing price,followed by per capita GDP and urban population,while land transaction price and residential construction area are slightly smaller.It can be seen that in the long-term formation of commodity housing prices in large and mediumsized cities in China,the continuous increase of money supply is the primary factor for the rise of commodity housing prices.The demand factors,such as the increase of purchasing power caused by the increase of per capita GDP and the increase of demand for house purchase brought by the increase of urban population,are the fundamental driving force for the rise of commodity housing prices.On this basis,the limitation of land resources and the supply of land are Inelasticity and other supply factors have also contributed to the further rise of commodity housing prices.Finally,the paper analyses the long-term development trend of the commodity housing market in the new era of China,and puts forward policy suggestions for the establishment of a long-term mechanism for the healthy and stable development of the commodity housing market in China.