Research On The Transformation Of China's Local Government Debt Risk Zoning System

Local government debt is a "double-edged sword".It played a positive role in promoting China's economic development,accelerating infrastructure construction,and improving people's livelihood at the initial stage of the release.However,with the continuous accumulation of government debt balance,the expanding local government Debt is very likely to cause local governments to fall into the "financial dilemma",which will bring hidden dangers to government credit and the safe operation of the financial system.The facts show that there is a multi-regional system in the local government debt risk state,so consider constructing a district-based conversion model to analyze the local government debt risk situation.There are many factors affecting the local government debt risk.In order to concentrate the influence of these factors,this paper uses network association analysis,grey correlation analysis,entropy method,etc.to combine the indicators of local government debt risk into a comprehensive indicator called local government.Comprehensive indicator of debt risk.Based on this comprehensive indicator,the district system conversion model is used to analyze the changes of local government debt risk.Firstly,construct a threshold regression model,use the threshold to divide the local government debt risk status,and finally select the local government's dependence on land finance as a threshold variable,analyze the debt risk situation under different threshold thresholds;then construct the Markov system.The transformation model analyzes the local government's conversion mechanism and analyzes the transition probability of different states of local government debt risk.Finally,it combines the smooth zone conversion model to analyze the inflection point of different risk states of local government debt.The estimation results of the three major conversion models analyze the changes of local government debt risk zoning from multiple angles such as threshold,steady state probability,transition probability and inflection point.The results show that by constructing the threshold regression model,it is found that the quick ratio has a threshold effect on the local government debt risk zone conversion.If the quick ratio is too high or too low,it will affect the local government debt risk,and the local government will land on different risk zones.The degree of financial dependence has a positive or negative impact on local government debt risk;the Markov district transfer model specifically analyzes the different risk conversion mechanisms of 31 provinces and cities,and divides 31 provinces and cities into 3 different The risk level,which is more targeted to control local government debt risk;the smooth conversion model focuses on analyzing the smoothing probability of conversion between two risk zones,and the smoothing probability reflects the conversion speed of different risk zones,so 31 The classification of debt risk in provinces and cities.Finally,the three models are compared and combined.The smooth zone conversion model is used to analyze the fluctuation of local government debt risk.The debt risk situation of 31 provinces,autonomous regions and regions is compared and analyzed,which is more conducive to local governments to improve local government debt risk situation.