Research On The Assessment System Of Local Government Debt Risk

Since the reform and opening up,China's economy has undergone a rapid development process,GDP growth has long been at the forefront of the world.The reform of the tax-sharing system in 1994 clearly regulated the distribution of income between the local government and the central government,but the division of financial,administrative and expenditure responsibilities was unclear.After the reform of the sub-tax system,more regional economic development responsibilities are inclined to the local government,but the mismatch of financial power and administrative power,financial resources and expenditure responsibility makes the local government adopt the method of borrowing to ensure the scale of regional financial expenditure.Under the impact of the world financial crisis in 2008,China's economy began to enter the stage of downward development,in order to deal with this problem,the central government has implemented a positive fiscal policy,local governments have increased the scale of government debt in order to maintain the steady development of regional economy,resulting in the rapid expansion of national local government debt.It is an urgent problem to resolve the risk caused by the expansion of government debt.And the central government also issued a series of documents on this issue,the main content is to guide how to establish an effective government debt risk assessment system,which shows that the risk of government debt in our country needs to be effectively controlled.The main purpose of this paper is to construct a system suitable for local government to evaluate debt risk.On the basis of combing the connotation,causes and related theories of local government debt wind,this paper analyzes the elements of local government debt risk assessment,and selects nine evaluation indexes.Based on the understanding of the existing government debt risk assessment system in China,this paper proposes to construct a local government debt risk assessment index system with comprehensive empowerment and comprehensive risk assessment value as the core,and introduces the process of comprehensive empowerment using analytic hierarchy process and entropy value method,as well as the steps to calculate the comprehensive risk assessment value with integrated empowerment results and TOPSIS method.Based on the constructed local government debt risk assessment model,the government debt data of Shanxi Province from 2015 to 2018 is used as an empirical analysis.The results of empirical analysis show that: Shanxi provincial government debt reached severe risk in 2015,in the "red light" state;2016 Shanxi provincial government debt risk assessment result is moderate risk,in the "yellow light" state;2017-2018 Shanxi provincial government debt risk assessment result is mild risk,in the "green light" state.Therefore,it is known that Shanxi Province in recent years to control the risk of government debt better,the previous government debt risk to resolve and prevent and control.However,it is necessary to be vigilant that based on the availability of data,the research object of this paper is the debt that the government has the responsibility to repay,so it will have an impact on the accuracy of the overall debt risk of the local government of Shanxi Province reflected in the evaluation results.Finally,based on the framework and the improvement of the local government debt risk assessment system as the starting point,the paper analyzes every link of the risk assessment,and puts forward some suggestions to strengthen the information disclosure,perfect the organizational management system,establishment of a special reserve and enrich the index system.