Study On The Research On The Influence Of Investor Pessimism On Stock Market Yield

In recent years,there have been more and more abnormal fluctuations in the securities market at home and abroad,which cannot be explained by traditional financial theories or predicted by traditional fundamental analysis and technical analysis,bringing great losses to investors.As a result,people began to question traditional financial theories and began to think about the market anomalies from a human perspective.Investor sentiment has become a research focus of behavioral finance.At the same time,with the rapid development of big data technology,the use of computer programming technology,combined with human brain strategy and machine learning algorithm to analyze stocks has become a mainstream way of stock analysis.Investor sentiment is not data,it is difficult to quantify it,but the comments made by investors in the stock market are the most direct expression of investor sentiment.Therefore,the big data method can be used to extract indicators reflecting investor sentiment from the comments of stock BBS,and the prediction model of stock price can be built based on the above research.At present,there are abundant researches on the influence of investor sentiment on stock market price fluctuation,but no scholars have studied a specific investor sentiment.As a very common investor sentiment in stock BBS,pessimism has a great influence on investors' investment behavior.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to study the impact of investors' pessimism on stock market price fluctuations.In order to study the impact of investor pessimism on stock market volatility,this paper first reviews relevant literature at home and abroad,and then studies it according to efficient market theory,behavioral finance theory and capital asset pricing theory.After that,all the stocks in the csi 300 are taken as the research obj ect,and the comment text of each stock bar on the Oriental fortune website in 2018 is extracted by the crawler software,from which the text information reflecting the investor pessimism is extracted,so as to construct the investor pessimism index.On this basis,the empirical test was conducted on the indicators of investor pessimism and stock returns,and the correlation between the two was analyzed.In addition,the indicator of investor pessimism was added to the capital asset pricing model to explain and predict the stock market returns.Finally,the stability of the conclusion was tested.Through empirical research,this paper comes to the following conclusions(1)investors' pessimism can have a significant negative impact on the stock return rate in the long run and play a certain role in explaining the stock price;(2)the difference in investor sentiment will have a significant positive impact on stock returns;(3)investors' concerns will not have a significant impact on the stock market's returns in the short term,but will have a significant negative impact on the stock market in the long term;(4)the ability of investors to explain stock returns in a bear market is greater than that in a bull market;(5)stock market returns have a long-term impact on investor sentiment,which is negatively correlated with investor sentiment.(6)the return rate of the stock market has no significant impact on investors' attention in a very short period of time,but in the long run,it can have a positive impact on investors.