The Research On The Impact Of Sino-US Trade Warfare On China's High-end Manufacturing Stock Price

At present,the world economy presents a multivariate distribution.While deepening trade ties,countries are constantly provoking trade frictions.In 2018,US enterprises launched 21 "337 investigation applications" against China to the United States International Trade Commission(ITC).and U.S.government also issued relevant policies to restrict China's import of high-tech from the United States and mergers and acquisitions in the United States.Especially when President Trump came to power,he took the initiative to provoke trade frictions and declared that he would impose high tariffs on goods originating from China.From the two taxation lists published now,we can see that most of the taxation contents are concentrated in the high-end manufacturing industry in China,which is closely related to the fact that Madein-China 2025,published by the Chinese government,was alternatively interpreted as "ambitious technology reform policy" by some American media.At the same time,it also reveals the real intention of the American government to curb the development of China's manufacturing industry.This paper will take the outbreak of Sino-US trade war as the research background.Based on the relevant literature and theoretical research,this paper firstly uses the daily data from May 2 to June 28,2018(41 trading days)to empirically study the daily return data of 792 manufacturing listed companies by using the event study method,and observes that the outbreak of Sino-US trade war how to affect the stock prices of manufacturing listed companies.Secondly,taking of the cumulative abnormal return of high-end manufacturing industry as the explanatory variable,this paper uses multiple regression to explore the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and company's stock price.Through the analysis of the statistical results,the following three conclusions are drawn:(1)For the manufacturing industry as a whole,the average excess rate of return reaches the maximum negative value on the day of the event(t=0),which means the negative impact reaches the maximum.And the average accumulated excess rate of return first rises,then falls before the event day,which indicates that the market holds a negative attitude towards the outbreak of the Sino-US trade war,and most think that the prospects of China's manufacturing industry are bad.(2)The impact of Sino-US trade war on the stock prices of listed manufacturing companies varied with different industries.Because the content of the tax list is mainly concentrated in the high-tech field of our country,compared with the low-end manufacturing industry,the high-end manufacturing listed companies have a larger scope of negative impact and a longer time.(3)Against the background of the sharp devaluation of the RMB exchange rate,the Sino-US trade volume has not increased,which is obviously contrary to the American statement that "China obtains a long-term trade surplus by manipulating the devaluation of the RMB exchange rate".In fact,there is a negative correlation between the RMB exchange rate and the import and export volume of high-end manufacturing industry.That is to say,the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate will result in the decrease of the import and export volume of high-end manufacturing industry,which will lead to the decrease of the company value and the decline of the stock price.In order to enable our government to better cope with the international pressure brought by the Sino-US trade war,and to smoothly complete the transformation and upgrading of China's high-end manufacturing industry,and provide valuable investment information for investors,this paper will provide some reference suggestions for the government,high-end manufacturing industry and investors on the basis of theoretical research and empirical test results.