Risk Assessment And Prevention Of REITs

Capital supplying has an important impact on the healthy development of the real estate industry.Large amount,long occupation time and slow liquidity of capital in the real estate industry lead to high threshold for investors,which makes real estate enterprises face financing difficulties.REITs converting illiquid real estate to securitised products in primary and secondary market circulation,help to reduce real estate stock of leverage,to prevent the occurrence of systemic financial risk,through the financial role get through the channel of capital into the real economy,fit through financial institutions in China "to inventory,to leverage" macro policy requirements.By measuring and evaluating the risks of REITs,this paper provides corresponding Suggestions for China to launch mature public offering REITs.This paper analyzes the cases of Penghua Qianhai Vanke REITs and Yuexiu REITs.We conducted a qualitative study on the risks of the two funds from the aspects of basic assets,financial status,legal environment and organizational structure,and found that the basic assets of Penghua Qianhai Vanke REITs had bankruptcy isolation risk and operational risk.Then we choose two rental unit price the basis of fund assets,rents and other specific data for quantitative research,and refer to the international and domestic credit evaluation method of asset securitization products,based on the Monte Carlo Simulation from the perspective of fund debt paying ability,results show that the debt paying ability of Penghua Qianhai Vanke REITs is weak.By building the GARCH-Va R model,we selected the return rate data of two funds in the same period and empirically tested the return risk of the two funds.The results showed that the GARCH(1,1)model based on the t-distribution had a high fitting degree for the risk of China's REITs products.There is a high probability that the profit and loss of Penghua Qianhai Vanke REITs' s REITs exceed the predicted value of Va R,which has a high risk.Based on the above research,we puts forward corresponding suggestions for the design and operation of public offering REITs in mainland China,and believes that in the selection of transaction structure,equity REITs should be adopted to realize true sale and effective bankruptcy isolation.In the selection of basic assets,the income sensitivity of basic assets should be reduced by dispersing property types,regions and tenants.In terms of operation,the active management ability of the manager should be strengthened to reduce the principal-agent risk.In terms of information disclosure,the REITs credit evaluation system should be improved as soon as possible.