Research On Risks Of China Real Estate Investment Trust

For more than half a century,real estate investment trusts,which originated in the United States,have been valued by more and more countries and regions as a financial innovation product.The real estate investment trust fund has expanded the source of funds for the real estate industry,increased financing channels,and provided financial institutions and individual investors with lower risk and stable return on investment targets.Real estate investment trusts have the dual attributes of finance and real estate.With the accelerated pace of China’s economic structural reform and the continuous deepening of real estate control policies,the traditional bank credit model has been difficult to meet the capital needs of real estate companies.Against this background,China’s real estate industry has continuously explored new financing methods in the capital market in recent years,and has issued a number of private equity REITs(asset-backed special plan)products.However,these products are issued privately,which is quite different from similar foreign REITs.It still cannot meet the needs of the long-term development of the real estate industry and the investment of financial institutions in China.Studying its risk characteristics has important reference significance for the current development of REITs in China.This paper mainly studies the risk of REITs.The definition,characteristics,classification and risks of REITs were firstly sorted out,the development status of overseas REITs and the listing status of domestic basic properties in mainland,Hong Kong and Singapore were analyzed,and the differences between domestic and foreign REITs products were compared.Secondly,four REITs with mainland basic property assets listed in the mainland,Hong Kong and Singapore were selected as cases for risk analysis,focusing on the qualitative analysis of the policy risks and internal risks of the project,and the market risks of the four REITs were quantitatively analyzed by building garch-var model.The empirical results show that GARCH(1,1)model based on t distribution can effectively fit the volatility of REITs products and predict the volatility of REITs products.VaR model can well fit the risks of REITs products.The volatility and risks of penghua qianhai vanke REITs listed in mainland are higher than those listed in Hong Kong and Singapore.Finally,based on the comparative analysis of domestic and foreign cases and empirical test results,the paper puts forward Suggestions on REITs risk management in China: market regulators should strengthen risk prevention and control of REITs fund managers,clarify the rights and responsibilities of fund managers,and establish a REITs self-regulatory system and a manager information disclosure system.The financial infrastructure of REITs market should be further improved,including REITs taxation,improving the professional level of managers and market construction.Product issuers should strengthen the risk prevention and control of REITs organizational structure,adopt the mode of "public REITs+ABS" to isolate asset risks,and establish an effective incentive mechanism for fund managers.Fund managers should improve the diversification and management efficiency of holding property assets.