Research On Early Warning Of Local Government Debt Risk Based On Government Comprehensive Financial Reporting

After China’s economic development has entered a new normal,the trend of local economic growth has slowed down.In order to accelerate the process of urbanization and promote regional economic development,local governments continue to expand the scale of lending,and the debt problem has become increasingly serious.In this context,the prevention and resolution of local government debt risk has become the focus of local government management.In order to better meet the needs of government management,our country has gradually promoted the reform of accrual-based government accounting,and started the trial compilation of comprehensive government financial reports.The comprehensive government financial reports based on accrual-based system fully reflect the government financial information of assets and liabilities,revenue and expenses,operating costs and other aspects,and reflect more comprehensively and reliably.The real level of local government debt provides new ideas and contents for the study of local government debt risk in China.Therefore,from the new perspective of government comprehensive financial report,this paper makes a preliminary study on the early warning of local government debt risk,which has positive theoretical and practical significance for improving the quality of local government debt risk management.Starting from the definition of local government debt and local government debt risk,this paper analyses the current situation of local government debt and the causes of debt risk.Secondly,it compares with the government budget report,and summarizes the positive impact of the government comprehensive financial report on the early warning of local government debt risk.Thirdly,drawing on the experience of the evaluation index system of government debt status of domestic and foreign evaluation institutions and the comprehensive financial report analysis index system of the United States Government,four dimensions of debt size,debt structure,debt solvency and debt sustainability are determined.On the basis of comprehensiveconsideration of the information of government assets and liabilities,cost,fiscal revenue and expenditure,and macroeconomic situation,the structure of debt is established.The early warning index system of local government debt risk based on government comprehensive financial report has been established.Fourthly,taking the data of 119 county-level administrative regions in S province in 2016 as samples,this paper establishes a local government debt risk early warning model by factor analysis and BP neural network.After testing,this early warning model achieves better early warning effect and has strong universality.Finally,combined with the problems encountered in the construction of early warning system in this paper,suggestions are made on how to improve the early warning system of local government debt risk based on government comprehensive financial report.The innovation of this paper mainly includes two points: one is the innovation of research perspective.The accrual-based government comprehensive financial report reflects the information of government assets,liabilities and costs more completely,overcomes the limitations of traditional research on the cash-based government financial report,and provides a new perspective for the early warning of local government debt risk.The second is to try to construct a local government debt risk early warning index system based on the comprehensive financial report of the government.In the process of local government debt risk early warning,asset-liability index and income-expense index are used.