A Study Of Medical Insurance,Medical Expenditure Uncertainty And Urban Households' Consumption

In the process of market economy reform in our country at present,the residents face many uncertainties in employment,medical care,education and pension.How to stimulate consumption and keep the rapid development of economy in this context is one of the most important issues at the present stage of our government.Many scholars believe that through the improvement of the social insurance system to promote consumer spending growth,expanding domestic demand,thereby increasing the contribution of consumption to economic growth.Based on the precautionary savings as the theoretical basis,most scholars 'empirical studies have found that social insurance can promote consumption,given the explanation that social insurance as a means of protection can reduce the future uncertainty of residents' expectations,thereby reducing preventive savings and achieving promote the purpose of consumption.However,few literatures examine the mechanism of social insurance affecting the consumption of residents,and the quantitative analysis of uncertainty is more rare.Therefore,this paper will choose the appropriate method to measure the uncertainty,to study whether social health insurance can reduce the uncertainty of future medical expenses,thereby promoting consumption.Uncertainties in the theory of preventive savings include income uncertainty and expenditure uncertainty.The impact of social insurance on urban household uncertainty includes many aspects,in which medical insurance can reduce the future uncertainty of medical expenses by reducing the future medical expenses.Therefore,the uncertainty of this article refers to the medical insurance expenditure of urban households' uncertainty.Since the implementation of the basic medical insurance for urban residents since the beginning of the pilot area in 2007,the coverage of the population has been expanded,the insurance coverage and the level of protection have been increasing year by year.The basic medical insurance system of urban residents can reduce the uncertainty of urban households and stimulate the consumption,which is the government and the academic community of concern.In this paper,we use the Chinese Family Panel Studies(CFPS)data to estimate the impact of medical insurance to reduce the uncertainty and promote the consumption by using DID-PSM and the panel data least squares method,and examined the heterogeneity of these effects in different income families.The results show that the basic medical insurance for urban residents can provide medical insurance for urban households and reduce the uncertainty of medical expenditure of urban households.The decrease of uncertainty of medical expenditure will increase the current consumption level of urban households,especially the cities' residents of food consumption,non-food consumption and non-health care consumption,while significantly increasing the current health care consumption.The results of heterogeneity analysis of families in different income groups show that,in low-income families medical insurance reduces household uncertainty,and the reduction of uncertainty will promote the consumption level of families,and the impact of uncertainty on food consumption,non-food consumption and non-health care consumption is significant and has no effect on health care consumption.In the middle-income group,health insurance also significantly reduces family uncertainty,and the reduction in uncertainty also contributes to household consumption.Unlike the low-income group,the reduction in uncertainty only has a significant effect on food consumption and non-health care consumption,which has no significant effect on non-food consumption and a significant inhibitory effect on health care consumption.High-income groups in the family,although the impact of uncertainty on household consumption is consistent with the impact of low-income groups,health insurance does not reduce the uncertainty of their families.All in all,the basic health insurance for urban residents reduces uncertainty,and the path of interest that promotes consumption can be significantly tested in low-and middle-income families.Therefore,this paper gives the following policy recommendations:(1)according to the level of economic development,and continuously improve the level of subsidies to insured personnel;(2)according to the different income,design the implementation of hierarchical system;(3)according to the level of medical expenses,to improve the scope of reimbursement and reimbursement ratio;(4)pay attention to the simultaneous development of other social insurance,making the scope of protection more comprehensive.