| The proportion of the second and third industries is an important manifestation of the national economic development level.China’s industrial,construction and service production has become an important driving force for economic growth.As a necessary condition for the development of the second and third industries,the workers’ large-scale flows between regions must affect economic growth.Grasping the complex relationship between migrant workers and China’s economic growth is helpful for the government to correctly guide the flow of the workers through administrative measures and promote the long-term stable economic development.The existing literature on the relationship between migrant labor and economic growths is not conclusive.This paper attempts to explore the complex influence of the migrant workers on China’s economy by using the new statistical analysis method,and it has important practical significance.The content of this paper mainly includes:(1)The paper introduces the background and significance of the topic,reviews and summarizes relevant literature on domestic and foreign papers,briefly summarizes the research content,and summarizes the innovation points.(2)It uses descriptive statistical methods to analyze the current situation of migrant workers and real GDP in China as well as the changes in the ranking of provinces compared with 2002,and the Thiel index was used to show the differences of China’s regional economic development under the influence of migrant workers.(3)The paper uses Vector Error Corrected Model with Markov Regime Switching to explore the regional effect of migrant workers and real GDP,and to analyze short-term fluctuation and long-term equilibrium relationship between the migrant workers and real GDP.(4)Based on provincial panel data,this paper builds the semi-parametric additive model to study the linear and nonlinear effects of workers’ inflow and outflow on economic growth in the east,central,west and northeast regions.(5)The paper summarizes the conclusion of the study and proposes the targeted measures to correctly guide the migration of workers,and makes further research prospect.The conclusions of this paper mainly include:(1)There is obvious regional imbalance in the distribution of migrant workers in China,workers mainly from the central,western and northeast region to the eastern region.Since 2007,the proportion of migrant workers in northeast regions is basically unchanged,and the proportion in central and western regions is on the rise,while the proportion in eastern region is on the decline.The difference in the regional economy development on the influence of migrant workers is obvious,which is mainly composed of regional differences,and the intraregional differences are mainly in eastern regions.(2)The effect of migrant workers on real GDP is obviously characterized by two regimes about "slow growth" and "rapid growth".The duration and transition probability of the "slow growth" regime are almost the same as "rapid growth" regime,but the correlation between migrant workers and economic growth is far different.(3)Both the inflow and outflow of workers in the east have positive linear effects on economic growth,and the non-linear influence of outflow on economic growth presents an "N" trend.(4)In the central region,only the outflow of workers has a positive linear influence on local economic growth,and the non-linear influence presents a positive "U" trend with a gentle tail.(5)The outflow of workers in the western region has a positive linear effect on local economic growth,and the non-linear effect presents a "W" trend.The non-linear effect of migrant workers on economic growth is remarkable,which is opposite to the trend of outflow workers.(6)The linear influence of the inflow of workers on local economic growth in northeast China is not significant,while the outflow of workers has a linear promoting effect on economic growth,and the corresponding non-linear influence presents an inverted "N" trend. |
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