Research On The Influence Of Entrepreneurial Overconfidence On Entrepreneurial Decision

"Popular entrepreneurship,innovation," Since Prime Minister Li Keqiang proposed this concept in his 2015 government work report,China's entrepreneurial boom has continued to ferment,and entrepreneurial activities have flourished.Double-income activities can not only drive GDP,stimulate economic growth,but also expand employment,promote social fairness,and make the country flourish.However,we can easily find that the current failure rate of entrepreneurial activity is high,and many SMEs will close down in the first five years of their establishment.The failure of entrepreneurship is closely related to the external environment of entrepreneurship,but the nature of entrepreneurs is also crucial to the success of entrepreneurship.Overconfidence,as a psychological trait,affects entrepreneurial entrepreneurial decision-making.This article mainly focuses on the study of entrepreneurial traits,and explores whether entrepreneurs have excessive self-confidence and whether overconfidence will affect their entrepreneurial decision-making.This article first combs the related concepts of entrepreneurial traits and entrepreneurial decision-making,which focuses on the definition,influencing factors,and measurement methods of the psychological trait of overconfidence.Secondly,based on the relevant theoretical knowledge,this paper puts forward the research hypothesis and constructs a theoretical model.Among them,the independent variable is overconfidence,which is measured by overestimate and overtarget,and when one estimates that its score in the test is higher than his actual score,it is overestimated,and vice versa.Low estimate;when a person estimates that their score in the test is higher than the estimated score of their competitors,it is over-targeted;otherwise,it is too low.The dependent variable is the decision-making of entrepreneurship.Participants choose to be familiar with the market or unfamiliar market to measure.Being familiar with the market means that the entrepreneur has engaged in the work related to the industry,has certain working experience and is relatively familiar with the industry,and the unfamiliar market means It is the entrepreneur who has never been involved in the industry,has no relevant work experience,and does not know much about the industry.The adjustment variable is the expected return,which is measured by the participant choosing a 90-yuan bonus or a 45-yuan bonus.The 90-yuan bonus represents a large future expected return,and the 45-yuan bonus represents a smaller expected future return.Thirdly,this paper obtains statistical data through experimental research methods,and analyzes the data using SPSS21.0.The analysis methods mainly include contingency table analysis,paired sample T test and binomial logistic regression.Finally,the research findings of this paper are as follows:(1)Entrepreneurs are underestimated in the familiar market,they do not have excessive self-confidence,and there is overestimation of this type of overconfidence in strange markets.(2)Entrepreneurs are overly-oriented in this type of overconfidence both in familiar markets and in unfamiliar markets.(3)Overestimate entrepreneurial decisions that affect entrepreneurs.(4)Excessive positioning does not affect entrepreneurial entrepreneurial decisions.(5)Expected income does not have a significant regulatory effect on overestimation.(6)Expected income has a significant regulatory effect on over-positioning.