Research On The Credit Risk Correlation Effect Of Listed Companies In Enterprise Groups

With the globalization of economy and the deepening of financial integration,the financing structure and financing channel of listed companies are changing constantly,which leads to the huge increase of social non-performing assets,and finally leads to the increase of the probability of default risk of listed companies.The contagion of default risk may lead to large-scale credit risk default,which will lead to a serious financial crisis,so in recent years,the research on risk transmission of default has been increasing.However,the current research on the contagion of corporate credit default risk focuses on the measurement of the default risk of a single enterprise,most of which do not take into account the impact of the correlation effect of credit risk on the relevant enterprises and investors.The reality is that the market is organic.As a whole,there are direct or indirect links among the economic entities.It is obviously inappropriate to consider the default risk of an economic entity in isolation,and the relationship between the entities should be taken into account.Therefore,from the point of view of spatial econometrics,this paper constructs the geo-spatial distance matrix and economic correlation matrix,and studies the correlation mechanism and influencing factors of credit default risk by using spatial Probit model.The empirical results show that default risk not only has a significant spatial effect on geo-spatial contagion,but also has significant effect on credit risk default among group enterprises with economic correlation.The results show that the total asset turnover ratio,equity multiplier,current ratio,cash operation index,and net interest rate on total assets,which represent the financial situation of the company,have a strong impact on the risk and default of listed companies in the group,while the regional gross product and the index of resident consumption level have little influence on the default risk of listed group companies.In this paper,the economic relationship among enterprises is included in many factors to measure the risk of credit default,which can better explain the factors that affect the contagion of risk of default among group enterprises,so as to control the risk and reduce the risk.The probability of contagion,effectively controlling the risk of the company,promoting the better development ofthe company,but also for commercial banksinvestors,capital market regulators to make specific loan policies,choose the investment portfolio,It is of great practical significance to standardize economic market management.