The Influence Mechanism And Effect Of Monetary Policy On Chinese Residents' Consumption

In recent years,with the rapid development of the national economy,more and more new problems have been exposed,and the demand for the real time and scientific nature of fiscal policy and monetary policy is becoming more and more high.In the process of implementing macro control policy,the government always emphasizes the growth of the total economic total,which will cause the serious distortion of our economic structure to a certain extent,which leads to the long-term performance of high investment and low consumption in the economic structure of our country.According to the data of China's Bureau of statistics,the consumption rate of residents in China was only 39.21% in 2016,far below the international average level of 50%.In the long run,the irrational economic structure will not be conducive to the sustainable development of our national economy.Only relying on the market force can not guarantee the sustained and healthy growth of the consumption level of the residents in our country,so the government should implement the matching monetary policy and use the appropriate monetary policy tools to stimulate the improvement of the consumption level of the residents.Under this background,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the impact of monetary policy on Residents' consumption and the internal transmission mechanism.Based on the transmission theory of monetary policy and the theory of resident consumption,this paper discusses the internal influence mechanism of current monetary policy on resident consumption.This paper also analyzes the current consumption status of China's residents,and finds that although the consumption level of residents in China is increasing,the consumption rate of residents continues to decrease;the consumption level of urban and rural residents in China has increased greatly,and the gap between urban and rural consumption is declining,but the difference is still large.In the end,the factors that affect the consumption of residents are discussed.The reasons for the low consumption of residents in China are as follows: the slow growth of the residents' income,the rapid growth of the house prices,the higher proportion of the residents' food expenditure and the concept of the residents' heavy savings and light consumption.This paper selects the quarterly data from 2001 to 2016 as the research sample,and uses the DAG technology to explore the influence mechanism and effect of monetary policy on Residents' consumption through the structural vector autoregression(SVAR)model.The following conclusions are drawn:(1)in the interest rate transmission mechanism,the monetary policy has the causality from the money supply to the interest rate to the resident consumption.The result of the variance decomposition shows that the monetary policy affects the residents mainly through the monetary channel in the short term,and in the long term interest rate channels and monetary channels have played a greater role,and the role of interest rate channel transmission is greater.The effect of the transmission of interest rate channel is greater.(2)in the transmission mechanism of asset price,the monetary policy of our country has the causality from the money supply to the house price,and then to the resident consumption,while the financial asset price and the resident consumption are independent.The result of the variance decomposition shows that China's monetary policy is difficult to influence the consumption of residents through the transmission mechanism of financial asset prices,but can be transmitted through housing prices to residents' consumption.(3)in the credit transmission mechanism,China's monetary policy has the causality from the money supply to the interest rate,the interest rate to the resident consumption in the same period of cause and effect,from the money supply to the bank credit,and from the bank credit to the consumption of the residents.The results of variance decomposition show that in the short and medium term monetary policy mainly affects residents' consumption through credit channels,and the long-term interest rate mechanism has a greater impact on Residents' consumption.In view of the research conclusion,this article from the perspective of the government,the central bank and commercial Banks put forward the following Suggestions:(1)to play a good role in the regulation of the credit mechanism to the consumption of residents,the government should improve the bank credit mechanism and implement the differentiated credit policy,and the commercial banks should accelerate the reform of the loan system so as to increase the flexibility of the lending of commercial banks;(2)in the short term,the central bank should focus on expanding the credit scale of commercial Banks to give full play to the transmission role of the credit mechanism of monetary policy,in the long term,the role of interest rate mechanism should be attached.(3)encourage innovation in financial instruments so that residents can invest more in financial assets and contribute to monetary policy through asset price transmission channels.(4)give full play to the moderating effect of housing prices on Residents' consumption,and when the central bank implements monetary policy,we should give full consideration to the impact of money supply on housing prices.