The Study On Transmission Effects Of Intermediate Targets Of The Monetary Policy Based On DAG-SVAR

As a part of national macro-control,monetary policy is of great importance.With the development of China's financial market,the transmission mechanism of monetary policy has become complex.And the traditional intermediate target of monetary policy is also facing challenges.Therefore,it is necessary to analyze and study the transmission effect of intermediate targets in the new economic situation.On the basis of previous studies,this paper chooses broad money supply and social financing scale as the intermediate targets of quantitative monetary policy,and seven-day interbank lending rate and exchange rate as the intermediary targets of price monetary policy.Starting from the external transmission of monetary policy,this paper discusses the transmission effects of quantitative monetary policy intermediate targets and price monetary policy intermediate targets on economy and price under the three economic conditions of stable economic development,economic depression and inflation by establishing the DAG-SVAR model.The results show that: 1.When the economy develops steadily,the money supply plays a greater role in GDP than other intermediary targets.Interest rate has greater impact on GDP than exchange rate in price intermediate targets.From the feedback of CPI,the positive impact of money supply on CPI is greater than the social financing scale,and the effect on CPI lasts longer.For the two price intermediate targets,exchange rate has a great impact on CPI in the short run and interest rate has a greater impact on CPI in the long run.2.In economic depression,the effect of interest rate on GDP is superior to other intermediate targets.And the stimulating effect of interest rate on CPI is greater than that of exchange rate,and greater than that of two quantitative intermediate targets on CPI.3.When inflation occurs,the effect of money supply on price stability is higher than the social financing scale.Compared with the exchange rate,the interest rate plays a greater role in price stabilization in terms of the degree of impact,while theexchange rate plays a faster role in price stabilization in terms of the speed of its role.In addition,while stabilizing prices,the negative effect of exchange rate on economy is lower than that of interest rate on economy.Generally speaking,price intermediate targets play a greater role than quantitative intermediary targets in stabilizing prices.Secondly,monetary policy tools are added to the model,and the transmission effects of intermediate targets are analyzed by counterfactual simulation from the perspective of the transmission of monetary policy.It is found that the social financing scale plays the most important role,which is different from the results when only analyzing the external transmission.This shows that there are some obstacles in the internal transmission,and dredging the transmission channels is very important.In short,in different economic situations,each intermediate target plays a different role in the economy with its own advantages.And the ultimate effect of intermediate target is weakened due to the obstruction of monetary policy tools to the transmission of intermediary target.Finally,according to the results of the study,this paper puts forward some suggestions to promote the ultimate goal of monetary policy.