Research On Trade Potential Of Export Between China And Countries Of "B&R" Economic Corridors

The Belt and Road(B&R)was first raised at the end of 2013.The initiative received wide attention and positive support in the world.In 2015,China clearly stated that we would built China-Pakistan,China-Mongolia-Russia,BCIM,China-Middle Asia-West Asia,China-Indo China Peninsula,Asian-European Land Bridge Economic Corridors(Corridor Countries).As one of the important directions in China’s economic and trade development in the future,it is necessary to conduct the trade potential,the influence factors of trade potential and the extent of the influence.In the basis of the existing researches,this paper intends to combine the stochastic frontier analysis with the gravity model,using the stochastic frontier gravity model to estimate the export trade potential between China and the Corridor Countries,and use trade inefficiencies model to test the influence factors of the trade,so as to provide basis for the proposed policy.Researches on the "The Belt and Road" are mainly divided into two categories:one is the qualitative theoretical analysis,and the other is the quantitative analysis based on statistics or empirical analysis.As for the research about the trade potential,some scholars tend to measure the exact value of trade potential,while some others focus on finding the factors that affect the trade potential.Through combing the current situation of the trade between China and the Corridor Countries,it is found that the trade between China and the Corridor Countries has a good momentum of trade,but there also exists some problems.Generally speaking,bilateral trade is mainly complementary and has great trade potential.Therefore,this paper uses two models to return the trade potential of China and the Corridor Countries.In the main model(stochastic frontier gravity model),we estimate the trade potential and the natural factors affecting the scale of the trade potential.And in the sub model(trade inefficiencies model),we test the efficiency of trade and especially search the human factors affecting the realization of trade potential like institutional difference.Through empirical tests on the trade situation between China and the Corridor Countries in 2001-2016 we found that:first,the overall efficiency of trade between China and the Corridor Countries has been steadily increasing since 2001,but it has begun to decline in recent years.In 2016,The average trade efficiency was 0.81,and there is still great potential for excavation.Second,the trade efficiency and trade potential of different economic corridors have their own characteristics.The trade potential between China and Asian-European Land Bridge Economic Corridors is highest while China-Pakistan Economic Corridors has the highest trade efficiency.Third,among the traditional natural factors affecting the potential of trade,those as the economic,demographic,geographic distance,whether has same linguistic consistency and whether has the same border issue,all have significant effects on the trade potential;and the institutional differences such as the differences in government effectiveness,political level,and trade freedom are also been tested as the important factors affecting the realization of trade potential.Therefore,this paper hold that we should actively develop new economic growth points,make good use of policy advantages of The Belt and Road,and give full play to China’s role in the construction of The Belt and Road,to do a good job of policy communication,facilities linkage,and financial financing.China can lead the Corridor Countries to raise the level of government effectiveness and economic freedom,narrow the institutional differences in the Corridor Countries,and further expand China’s export trade.