Time-space Transmission Mechanism And Empirical Study Of Vegetable Price

Vegetables are indispensable necessities for urban and rural residents.The price of vegetables has a direct impact on farmers' income and residents' consumption.In recent years,the fluctuation frequency and range of vegetable market prices in China have been continuously intensified,and the fluctuation of vegetable price has become a hot topic and focus of social attention.In view of the frequent fluctuations of vegetable prices,complex transmission methods,and many influencing factors,it is urgent to carry out research on the spatial and temporal transmission mechanism of vegetable prices,and explore the inherent laws of the spatial and temporal transmission mechanism of vegetable prices.It is important for slowing the volatility of vegetable prices.On the basis of drawing lessons from domestic and foreign research achievements,is in view ofthe premise of economic cycle theory and price conduction theory,focusing on the time and spatial dimensions,this paper carried out the research on vegetable price transmission mechanism.The quantitative analysis method is used to study the conductionrelationship,conduction pathand conduction effects of vegetable prices.An empirical study is carried out in Beijing.The main contents and conclusions of the paper include the following four parts:The first part isto describethe characteristics and influencing factors of vegetable price fluctuation.Use X-12 seasonal adjustment method and HP filtering method to decompose the vegetable price time series.The results showed that the average cycle length of vegetable price fluctuation was about 23 months,and the cycle was not repeatable.The influencing factors of vegetable price fluctuation mainly include supply,demand and other aspects.The demand side includes per capita income,consumption,export volume,etc.In addition,it also includes abnormal weather,price of substitutes,national policies,etc.The second part isto study the vertical price transmission mechanism of vegetable.Comparative analysis of volatility characteristics shows that vegetable production prices are more sensitive than retail prices and bear greater risks.The formation of vegetable price is influenced by the expected retail price,and the retail price of vegetable is influenced by the expected production price.When short-term fluctuation deviates from equilibrium,it will pull the disequilibrium state back to equilibrium state with the adjustment intensity of(-0.64).There is an asymmetry in the transmission between vegetable production and retail prices.The efficiency of the production transfering to the retail chain is 105.25%,and the transfer efficiency of retail to production is 2.23%.Thethirdpart is to explore the spatial transmission mechanism of vegetable price.Select six provinces including Beijing,Hebei,Shandong,Tianjin,Inner Mongolia and Liaoning.Analytical varietiesinvolve cucumber and eggplant.The study found that whether it is eggplant or cucumber,Beijing is closely related to the surrounding provinces and cities in production and circulation.The price of Beijing vegetable market has a two-way transmission relationship with the prices of vegetables in Shandong,Liaoning and Tianjin.The market price of vegetables in Hebei and Inner Mongolia has no significant impact on Beijingvegetable market price.There is asymmetry in the price transmission of vegetables in Beijing and surrounding provinces and cities.The price of Beijing vegetable market price has a lag when Hebei,Shandong,Tianjin,Inner Mongolia and Liaoning vegetable market price changes.The price of Beijing vegetable market will have the same impact on the price of vegetable market in Shandong,Tianjin,Liaoning,Hebei and Inner Mongolia,and vice versa.In the process of market price formation,Conductive power ofthe transmission of vegetable prices in Beijing and surrounding provinces and cities mainly comes from the Beijing market,and the transmission type is “demand-driven”.Thefourth part proposes to encourage the development of farmer specialized cooperative economic organizations.We will improve vegetable price insurance and subsidy system.Establish and improve the vegetable price monitoring and early warning mechanism;Coordinate the construction of agricultural product circulation system in Beijing and surrounding provinces and cities.