Study On The Price Fluctuation And Asymmetric Transmission Of Fruit And Vegetable Products

Price theory, which reveals commodity price formation mechanisms and change law, is the one of the foundations of neo-classical economics. On one hand, the price fluctuations in products lead to survival of the fittest and promote the rational allocation of resources. On the other hand, the price transmission between markets can bring about the integration of market structure and promote market integration. Price fluctuations is an important part of price transmission, in turn, price transmission spreads price volatility to other markets. The study on price fluctuations and transmission characteristics has great significance for the grasp of the price individual characteristics and the overall market characteristics.With the development of global economic integration and trade liberalization, agricultural prices have been connected more closely between the vertical chains as well as regions. In recent years, agricultural products in China experienced frequent price fluctuations, especially after2010, whether they are the staple agricultural commodities or the minor agricultural products. Frequent fluctuations in prices of agricultural products have a huge impact on the healthy development of related industries, as well as the stability of the social and economic order. And exploring price fluctuations of agricultural products among the same industry, related industries and different regions become a research focus.This paper selects fruit and vegetable products as the research object, price fluctuations and vertical transmission as the research topic, basing on the relevant data of fruit and vegetable products production price and retail price in1978-2010, and using HP filter, BP filter, unit root test, cointegration test, structure break test and Asymmetry price transmission test to analyse agricultural products prices fluctuating characters and transmission relationship between vertical prices of industry chain in China.The innovation of this paper may have the following aspects:(1) using the full sample asymmetric spectral analysis technology to analysis the characteristics of the prices fluctuations of fruit and vegetable products in china, and using the HP filtering to contrast the result, the research methods are advanced;(2) we introducing the structure break factors to analyse the long-run equilibrium relationship between producer prices and retail prices of fruit and vegetable products, the result of long-run relationship is more accurate;(3) we using the co-integration theory, and on the basis of related research of foreign researchers those who analyse the price asymmetry tansmission, expanding the error correction model to analyse the price transmission relationship of fruit and vegetable products to get the price transmission characteristics of fruit and vegetable products between production and sales markets in China, its research methods is advanced, the study conclusion has greater value for reference.In this paper we can draw the main following conclusions:(1) the fruit and vegetable products production prices and retail prices show rising trend in long-term development;(2) the fruit and vegetable products price fluctuation has typical cyclical characteristics, but volatility cycle is not repeated with asymmetry characteristic;(3) between production price and retail prices of fruit and vegetable products there is a long-term equilibrium relationship;(4) the direction of price transmission is from production price to retail price of fruit and vegetable products, but the corresponding market is imperfect competitive;(5) the prices transmission of fruit and vegetable products is symmetrical in the long term, but asymmetric in the short-term.