Research On The Institutional Factors Affecting The Level Of Pension Expenditure

Since the end of the 20 th century,due to the impact of global economic growth slowdown,oil crisis and aging population and other factors,the sustainability of pensions has attracted the attention of the international community.There is a certain gap in China’s pension expenditure,the expenditure is greater than the income,the government financial payment pressure is large,relying on the government blindly fiscal subsidies is not a long-term solution.After studying the public pension expenditure level of emerging market countries and some developed countries,the International Monetary Fund pointed out that governments of all countries should actively respond to pension problems by means of parametric reform,reasonably control the pension expenditure level and maintain fiscal stability and sustainability.The Third Plenary Session of the 18 th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China,the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and 2019 Central Economic Conference have all stressed deepening the reform of social endowment security.Pension expenditure plays an indispensable role in deepening the reform of social endowment security and has practical significance in solving the problem of aging.“Pension Expenditure Level” as the main index of pension payment burden has more research significance.This paper starts with the institutional factors that affect the level of pension expenditure level,and uses comprehensive methods such as descriptive analysis,theoretical analysis and empirical analysis,and uses a general equilibrium model based on general equilibrium model of overlapping generations model(A-K model),GMM(generalized matrix)model,factor detection and so on,respectively from the national level and regional level study of the institutional factors affecting pension expenditure levels,thus for China’s pension system arrangement to provide some beneficial enlightenment.In this paper,first of all to pension related theories are reviewed,at the same time,according to the existing research results at home and abroad,on the basis of the understanding of the prevailing academic defined for pension expenditure level,and according to the analysis of the existing literature,think the current academic circles at home and abroad is less specialized examination of pension expenditure level research from the angle of institution.Secondly,on the basis of the above literature analysis,established A-K model,on the basis of analysis of model parameters,decomposition,determine the institutional factors that affect the level of pension expenditure level are five,respectively is institutional dependency ratio,pension replacement rate,labor participation rate,medical insurance costs passed on,pension contribution rate.Then,on the basis of the above analysis,GMM quantitative analysis and factor detection were used to analyze the system influencing factors of pension expenditure level at the national level and the regional level respectively.The empirical results show,(1)Medical insurance participation rate influence on pension expenditure level significantly,increase medical insurance participation rate will increase pension expenditure level,indicating a shift from medical insurance costs to pension insurance costs.(2)Social pension payment has continuity,pension insurance expenditure has strong inertia,and there is a "ratchet effect".(3)The pension replacement rate and the institutional dependency ratio have similar effects on the pension expenditure level,and they both act on the pension expenditure level,indicating that the aging population aggravates the pension expenditure burden.(4)Higher pension contribution rate would also increase the burden of pension payments.(5)Per capita GDP and labor participation rate are negatively correlated with pension expenditure level respectively,indicating that economic expansion and expansion of system coverage will have a negative relationship with pension expenditure level expansion.(6)The fairness of pension expenditure level within regions is improved,while the fairness of pension expenditure level between regions is reduced,due to the unbalanced economic development in various regions.(7)The medical insurance participation rate is the most significant factor among the institutional factors affecting pension expenditure level studied in this paper.(8)The independent GMM model simulation effect of institutional dependency ratio,pension replacement rate,labor participation rate,medical insurance participation rate,pension contribution rate and pension expenditure level has the same correlation with the comprehensive simulation effect,and only the independent variable has a change in the degree of influence on the dependent variable.Based on the above analysis,the policy suggestions given in this paper are as follows:(1)In terms of population policy,formulate the policy of delaying retirement flexibly and implement the two-child policy.At the same time,the previous aging standards need adjusted,and use the "social pooling account + individual account" model,expand the coverage of insurance coverage,to reduce the institutional dependency ratio.(2)Develop the multi-pillar endowment insurance model and maintain the acceptable pension replacement rate.(3)Vigorously develop the economy and ensure adequate financial funds.(4)Improve the labor participation rate by improving the quality of laborers,enhancing the ability of the second and third industries to absorb labor,improving the incentive mechanism,and improving market supervision.(5)Strengthen medical security and clearly define the responsibility boundary of medical insurance and endowment insurance.(6)Moderate adjustment and control of pension contribution rate.(7)Accelerate the improvement of supporting laws and systems,adjust the system structure reasonably,and enhance the sustainability of the system.