| The market of the commodity housing in China has sprout since 1998,especially the real estate market has got off to a roaring start in this century.The real estate market can not only improve people's living conditions,but also spur the development of social employment and economy.In recent years,however,the higher housing price has exceeded the capacity of many purchasers.In order to control the ascending trend of the housing price,the government takes a lot of measures to implement regulation such as economy,administration and law,etc,meanwhile,including currency policy.China has made great progress in economy with the help of reform and opening up since 1978.Nevertheless,the imbalance in China's economy emerges on the whole,which strain the gap between the developed coastal city and undeveloped inland city.At the same time,with regard to the currency policy issued by the central bank,the real estate market of both developed and undeveloped city makes different response on it,which will make the currency policy that can give rise to various policy adjustment results in different cities whose economic level is different.Thus,it is necessary to research and analyze the divergences of the real estate toward different spheres caused by the currency policy,master the effect and character of the currency policy in different fields,provide some advice for the policy-maker,and issue some policy tools in line with the development feature of the real estate in this region to regulate the housing price more accurately.Against the background of the national condition,the thesis adopts the method of theoretical analysis and solid evidence research.First,in terms of the influencing mechanism that the currency policy has an impact on the real estate,the thesis makes a theoretical analysis on the interest rate and the currency supply.Second,it regards 33 cities as the research object,which is divided into three kinds of cities,including the developed economy,the middle-level economy and the undeveloped economy according to the GDP scale.The data period is from 2006 to 2015.It tests the tool volume of the currency policy through establishing the pane data model to carry out the regression analysis,namely,the relativity and regional differences between the loan interest rate of the financial institutions and the bank credit with the fluctuations of the real estate.The result of the regression analysis shows that it maintains obvious relativity between the loan balance of the financial institutions and the housing price in these three kinds of cities,whereas the loan interest rate shows the relativity only in the developed cites and the housing price.Last,the thesis chooses Nanjing city and Xuzhou city that has different economy as the research object and establishes the VAR model to concretely analyze the variety that the currency policy exerts an impact on the housing price in different cities through using the data of time series from January 2008 to December 2016.According to the real evidence,the currency policy tools have regional differences in affecting the housing price,and different currency policy tools cause some differences in affecting the housing price,meanwhile,the currency policy influencing the housing price exists some hysteresis qualities.At last,we put up the following measures and suggestions according to conclusion from the analysis on the theory and realities.The people's Bank of China should think about the regional differences and continue to expand the local branch authority when it carried out the macro monetary policy,and the local branch should put forward the relevant measures with the combination of local development characteristic when it confirms to the unified national regulatory policy;according to the different regional economic development and local economy bearing capacity,the usage of differentiated monetary policy will be pushed,and the appropriate and different monetary policy tools can be applied;the right of the bank financial institutions to select the real estate credit on their own will be loosen,and the total amount and orientation of real estate credit will be strictly controlled;in the meantime,various means to control housing prices will be used. |
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