Does The Risk Of Stock Price Crash Affect The Cash Dividends Of Listed Companies?

As one of the core contents of corporate financial management,cash dividend has always been attached great importance by scholars at home and abroad,and has become the key object of corporate financial research.Reasonable cash dividend can promote the good development of enterprises and protect the interests of investors.However,from the perspective of cash dividend behavior of listed companies in China's capital market,there are still many unreasonable cash dividend policies.Cash dividend has increasingly become a tool for enterprises to seek profits,which makes the study of cash dividend by Chinese scholars gradually enter a "mystery".At present,scholars have explored the mechanism of cash dividends from many perspectives.In the existing research on the factors affecting cash dividends,it can be summarized that the agency cost and financing constraints are the factors that play a greater role.But the existing research is concentrated in terms of corporate characteristics and management behavior,there is little research on how risk,especially the risk of stock price collapse affects corporate cash dividends.As one of the many risks of enterprises,the risk of stock price crash has gradually entered the research perspective of scholars in recent years and become a research hotspot.The occurrence of stock price crash will cause a sharp decline in the stock price of enterprises,which often represents the high agency cost and high financing cost of enterprises.So,will the risk of stock price crash affect the formulation of cash dividend?Scholars have conducted a large number of studies on the relationship between corporate governance and cash dividends,and reached different conclusions.The "result" model believes that the company with more serious agency problems will pay less cash dividends,while the "alternative" model believes that the company with poor governance quality tends to pay more cash dividends to maintain a good reputation.Therefore,based on the two different logic approaches:the "result" model and the "substitution" model of cash dividends to explore the impact of agency costs and financing constraints on cash dividends will produce different results.So which model is the impact of stock price crash on cash dividends based?What kind of path is the influence based?In order to explore the above issues,this paper takes the agency cost and financing cost as the influencing approaches,and combines different cash dividend models to analyze the mechanism and internal relationship between the stock price crash risk and cash dividend,and proposes the research hypothesis accordingly.In order to further deepen the research results,this paper analyzes the impact of corporate refinancing demand on the association between stock price crash risk and cash dividend,and explores the internal association between stock price crash risk and corporate cash dividend from multiple perspectives.On the empirical test,this paper by using 2008-2017 a-share listed companies of related data;using Stata14.0 and Exce12007 statistical software;using Probit regression with panel Tobit regression to verify whether the stock price crash risk of listed companies will affect the enterprise's cash dividend payment tendency and the level of cash dividend payment.At the same time by refinancing needs as A moderator variable to verify whether the inherent association between the listed company's share price collapse risk and the cash dividend will change under different circumstances.In this paper,the regression results show that:(1)There is a significant negative association between the risk of stock price crash and the propensity to pay cash dividends,that is,the higher the stock price collapse risk means that the probability of the company paying cash dividends is smaller;and there is no possibility between the stock price collapse risk and the cash dividend payment level.Significant linear associations support the "result" model effect of cash dividends.(2)When companies with refinancing needs,the"substitution" effect of cash dividends plays a leading role.Refinancing needs will strengthen the positive association between stock price crash risk and cash dividend payment propensity and cash dividend payment level;When companies without refinancing needs,the "result"effect of cash dividends plays a leading role,and no refinancing demand will strengthen the negative association between the stock price collapse risk and the cash dividend payment tendency and the cash dividend payment level.This paper is mainly composed of five chapters.The first chapter is the introduction.Based on the current situation of China's capital market and combined with the current research hotspots,this paper puts forward the research topic of this paper.At the same time,a brief review of the current research literature on the stock price crash risk and cash dividend,in order to make a theoretical foundation for the next research hypothesis.The second chapter is the concept definition and theoretical basis.It defines the concept of stock price crash risk and cash dividend,and combines agency cost theory,order financing theory and signal transmission theory to explain the basic theory of this paper.The third chapter is the analysis and research hypothesis of the cash dividend of listed companies.By analyzing the current status of the cash dividend of listed companies,and combining the corresponding theories and research results,the research hypothesis of this paper is proposed.The fourth chapter is empirical research and analysis,using empirical research methods to demonstrate the research hypothesis proposed in this paper.The fifth chapter is the research conclusions,suggestions and prospects,summarizes the corresponding research results,and proposes related policy recommendations based on the results.This paper chooses a unique and novel perspective to verify the impact of stock price fluctuations on corporate cash dividends,enriching relevant theoretical research.At the same time,the research puts correctly guiding corporate behavior in the capital market as the ultimate goal,based on the prevention of stock price collapse risks and the scientific formulation of cash dividends.It provides some reference for relevant state departments,enterprises and small and medium-sized investors,so that they can make more reasonable,scientific and accurate decision-making and promotes the healthy development of capital market in China.