| The asymmetric effect of monetary policy is an important issue in the field of monetary economics.The so-called asymmetric effects of monetary policy are usually defined and described from the vertical and horizontal perspectives.Vertical refers to the macroeconomics of economic growth and other economic policies in the same policy direction or in different economic cycle stages.There are significant differences in the impact of variables;horizontal refers to the impact of the same strength of monetary policy on economic growth in different economic entities,different industries and industries or different regions.Since the asymmetric effects of monetary policy cover a wide range,this requires the central bank to pay more attention to the observation,investigation and research on the asymmetry of monetary policy when formulating monetary policy.From the current economic situation,China is in a critical period of deepening reform and restructuring the economic structure.The starting point of the new cycle of production capacity and the ebb of the financial cycle are the main logics of the current macroeconomic and financial situation.The operation of monetary policy must take into account steady growth.And adjust the structure,but also take into account the deleveraging,anti-risk.Therefore,in order to better play the role of monetary policy in regulating macroeconomics,it is necessary to thoroughly study the effects of monetary policy in the economic downturn on macroeconomic variables such as output and price,which will not only enrich the content of the empirical study on the asymmetric effects of China’s monetary policy.More importantly,it will affect the effect of monetary policy implementation,which will affect the smooth operation of China’s macro economy and the transformation and upgrading of the economic structure.Therefore,it has important theoretical significance and practical value.This article consists of five parts.The first part is the introduction,which mainly introduces the research background,research significance,basic structure,main contributions and inadequacies of this paper,and combs and summarizes the domestic and foreign literatures on the asymmetric effects of monetary policy,from vertical,horizontal and empirical research methods.A comparative analysis of the angles,thus laying the foundation for literature research.The second part is the theoretical basis of the asymmetric effect of monetary policy,including the concept definition and formation mechanism,which are elaborated from five aspects: price stickiness,subjective expectation,credit constraint,financial accelerator and risk commitment.The third part is a statistical description of the typical facts of the asymmetric effect of China’s monetary policy,thus constructing a working hypothesis and establishing a starting point for empirical analysis.From 2000 to the present,China’s monetary policy regulation process can be roughly divided into four stages.The results of statistical analysis show that from the above four rounds of the cycle,the monetary policy operation space is limited,the transmission is not smooth to a certain extent,the monetary policy can not reach the expected effect of the central bank or exceeds the expected regulation,there is an asymmetric situation.The fourth part tests the existence of the longitudinal asymmetric effect of monetary policy.The quarterly data of China from 2000 to 2017 was selected.M2 was used as the monetary policy shock variable.The HP filter method was used to separate the positive and negative money supply shocks.Then the VAR model based impulse response analysis and variance decomposition were used to test the difference.The asymmetric effect of the monetary supply shock of policy direction on output and price levels.The results show that positive money supply shocks(expansion policies)and negative money supply shocks(tightening policies)have asymmetric effects on China’s output and price levels,and tightening is more effective than expansion.In addition,the new variable representing the bank’s risk tolerance,the loan approval index,is introduced into the monetary policy output effect analysis.It is found that the asymmetry of the monetary policy output effect still exists,but with the increase of the bank’s risk tolerance,to a certain extent It can alleviate the negative effects of tightening monetary policy on the economy.The fifth part is the conclusion that the asymmetric effect of China’s monetary policy does exist,and the effect of monetary policy during the expansion period is not significant.Therefore,in order to better improve the efficiency of monetary policy operation and enhance the control effect of China’s monetary policy,three suggestions are proposed.First,monetary policy should be used cautiously to stimulate economic growth.Second,we must flexibly adjust monetary policy according to the economic cycle.Finally,rationally match other policy instruments to better achieve macroeconomic regulation and control of the economy. |
