Research On The Influence Of Agricultural Insurance On Agricultural Output

Agriculture is the cornerstone of orderly operation and development of society.In recent years,with the global warming and the frequent occurrence of extreme weather,the vulnerability and high risk of agriculture have become more prominent.In order to effectively solve this problem,The NO.1 central document from 2004 to 2018 emphasized on building and improving the agricultural insurance system,reducing the impact of natural risks on agricultural production,and protecting the orderly development of agriculture.Since the founding of the People's Republic of China,China has made many explorations on the development model of agricultural insurance,but the effect is not very significant.At present,China has established a new agricultural insurance system(policy-based agricultural insurance system)with central and local linkage subsidies,which covers the government,insurance companies,farmers and other actors.Agricultural insurance has been further developed.However,does the agricultural insurance reform play an active role in promoting agricultural output growth and ensuring food security?Under the agricultural production pattern of major grain-producing areas and non-major grain-producing areas,is there any difference in the effect of agricultural insurance on agricultural output among regions?These are the important issues that affect the sustainable development of agricultural economy.Therefore,it is of great theoretical value and practical significance to discuss the influence of agricultural insurance on agricultural output.This paper proposes two assumptions based on the relevant theories of economics:(1)Agricultural insurance has a positive promoting effect on agricultural output.Before the disaster,agricultural insurance is conducive to stable production expectations.After disaster,agricultural insurance has the function of economic compensation,thus ensuring normal agricultural production.(2)The influence of agricultural insurance on agricultural output varies among regions.Among them,the effect of agricultural insurance on agricultural output in major grain-producing areas is higher than that in non-grain-producing areas.Then,based on panel data of 31 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions from 2005 to 2016,this paper explores the development status of agricultural insurance in China since the implementation of policy-based agricultural insurance system from two dimensions of time and space,and studies the impact of agricultural insurance on agricultural output by random effect,fixed effect and generalized least square method.The results show that:(1)both before and after the disaster,agricultural insurance is helpful to promote the steady growth of agricultural output;(2)Inter-regional agricultural insurance has a significant and positive impact on agricultural output,and the agricultural insurance in major grain-producing areas has a higher promoting effect on agricultural output than that in non-major grain-producing areas.The above conclusions are consistent with the assumptions.Finally,based on the measurement results,the paper puts forward the following suggestions:(1)Encourage and guide the development of policy-based agricultural insurance and expand the scale of agricultural insurance;(2)Increase the policy inclination of major grain-producing areas and give full play to the effectiveness of agricultural insurance;(3)Strengthen the supervision of agricultural insurance subsidies to ensure the sustainable development of agricultural insurance.