Local Government Debt Risk Assessment

In 2008 after the outbreak of the financial crisis,take the 4 trillion economic stimulus plan in our country,the domestic economy quickly recover again in 2009,2010 and jumped to the world economy second,as the mainstay of this package of local government,through the various city financing platform has accumulated a lot of hidden debt,debt scale expands,gradually become the "grey rhino" of economic development.Now China's economy has entered the new normal,and the downward pressure on the economy has increased.With the deepening of supply-side structural reform,the prevention of local government debt risk has become the focus of governments at all levels.In July 2018,the central government issued the opinions on preventing and defusing hidden debt risks of local governments,which clearly stated that the 19 th national congress of the communist party of China will resolutely carry out the battle of preventing and defusing major risks.One of the important tasks is to prevent and defusing local government debt risks.The key to preventing and defusing local government debt is to comprehensively and systematically demonstrate and evaluate the causes,problems and hidden dangers of debt management,so as to formulate targeted preventive measures.This paper focuses on the debt situation of Jiangxi province.As the only province in the central region to issue new bonds in 2014,the economic growth of Jiangxi province shows a trend of rapid growth,so it is of great practical significance to study and analyze the debt risk of Jiangxi province.Based on absorbing the local government debt management at home and abroad in recent years,on the basis of research results,taking 100 counties of Jiangxi province as the research object,through the factor analysis to find out the key factor of debt risk,the risk of local debt risk situation of the divided accordingly,based on the empirical test results put forward policy Suggestions on how to protect the local government debt.