Research On The Influence Of Agricultural Product Price Volatility On Farmers'Income In Shandong Province And Its Countermeasures

Increasing farmers' income is an important issue in China's economic construction.It relates to the overall development of agriculture,countryside and farmers,and determines whether the goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way can be achieved smoothly.In Shandong Province,farmers take agricultural income as their basic source.The price of agricultural products directly determines the amount of agricultural income.When the price of agricultural products rises,then the unit price rises,which promotes farmers' income increased.However,as prices rises,the sales of agricultural products may decrease,thus reducing farmers' income.In other words,the fluctuation of agricultural product prices has an impact on farmers' income,which is uncertain.Therefore,it is of great value to study this influence.Based on this background,this paper starts with the theory of price and the theory of income,and analyzes the influence of agricultural products price on farmers' income.Based on the data of Shandong Province from 1992 to 2017,this paper adopts the production function model,and the price of agricultural products and farmers' income will be included in the research system at the same time.Then the vector autoregressive model is established.It analyzes the effect of the price interference of agricultural products on farmers' income by using the generalized impulse response function,and analyzes the contribution of price shocks on farmers' income by variance decomposition.The empirical results show that the rising prices of agricultural products have a stable positive effect on farmers' income,but the promotion effect is relatively weak.The main reasons are the imperfect price policy of agricultural products,the lack of linkage between the market management system of price fluctuation,and the asymmetry of price information.In other factors,the increase of the level of urbanization and the increase of the investment of fixed assets have a significant positive impact on the farmers' income,while the level of rural industrial structure has a negative impact on income.Based on the analysis of the empirical results,this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions on stabilizing the price of agricultural products and promoting farmers' income.Firstly,we should use price support policy to stabilize the price of agricultural products and prevent the risk of falling prices.Secondly,we should establish a market-oriented management system for price fluctuation of agricultural products,combining policy support with market management,and giving full play to the role of market regulation.Thirdly,we should improve the information system of agricultural products market,broaden the information channels and ensure smooth price transmission.Fourthly,we should implement differentiated management of agricultural products market and adopt different price stabilization measures according to the characteristics of price changes.Fifthly,we should pay attention to other factors which affects farmers' income and help them to increase income.