Study On The Contagion Effect Of Stock Price Fluctuation In China's 12 Industries Before And After Sino-US Trade Friction

In March 2018,the United States imposed a tariff on China's import and export commodities on the grounds of China's huge trade deficit.China immediately responded and the two sides launched a new round of trade friction against trade disputes.This paper first analyzes the connotation of trade friction,the type of trade relationship,the classical trade theory and the new trade theory.The Krugman intra-industry trade model and the Keynes classic international balance of payments model are used to explore the impact of trade friction on the micro and macro level.Factors,combined with the theory of stock market volatility effects,specifically to study the contagion effects between Chinese industries.The general idea is:after conducting a normative analysis of the scale,structure and characteristics of Sino-US trade,point out the problems that China has in trade friction,and select the Chinese and American industries from May 5,2017 to November 6,2018.Using time series data of the index as a sample,Granger causality test and VAR model are used to measure the infection linkage between industries,determine the source of infection trade and the infection path,and make in-depth effects on the trade effects and characteristics of trade friction between industries.Explore.The study found that:(1)In the process of Sino-US trade friction,the main infection routes between the industries are:the US materials industry sector,the medical industry sector,the Chinese industry,the information industry,the pharmaceutical industry,and other industries in China.Strong dependence on American high-tech products.(2)The US materials industry sector has a positive effect on the infection of China's industrial and information industries,and the US medical industry sector has a negative effect on the infection of the Chinese pharmaceutical industry.Among the research results,only the US material industry sector has a positive effect on the contagion effect of China's industrial and information industries.This shows that the substitution effect of rising raw material commodity prices on the effective demand of raw materials market is greater than the income effect,and the raw material commodities are rigid.demand.(3)Compared with the Chinese industrial industry,the Chinese information industry and the pharmaceutical industry have more contagious effects on other industries.(4)The contagion effect of the consumer industry and the optional industry is not obvious.This shows that the United States has imposed tariffs on China's import and export of consumer goods without causing significant fluctuations in the Chinese consumer industry and optional industries.(5)The financial industry and the banking industry are very sensitive to this trade friction and the epidemic is the most serious.(6)The material industry and the energy industry show strong independence in trade friction.This shows that trade friction has little impact on the above two industries.(7)China's 12 industries have expanded and deepened the breadth and depth of the negative contagion effect of trade friction between China and the United States through direct infection,indirect transmission and cross-contagion.For example,in China's industrial sector,China's real estate industry,the Chinese banking industry,and the Chinese industrial industry's infection path,China's industrial sector directly spreads trade frictions to China's real estate industry through direct infections,based on China's real estate industry's direct impact on the Chinese banking industry.Infectious role,China's industrial industry has achieved an indirect contagion effect on the Chinese banking industry.Finally,the Chinese banking industry has achieved a cycle of infection through the cross-contagion effect with the Chinese industrial industry.Finally,based on the above empirical analysis results,this paper proposes targeted policy recommendations.