A Study On The Impact Of The Cyclical Change Of Us Dollar On China's Cross-border Capital Flows

To effectively deal with and prevent the impact of cross-border capital flows and maintain the stability of the foreign exchange market is an important measure to implement the general secretary's plan of "effectively preventing and defusing major risks".At present,the us dollar has entered a strong cycle,and China is facing the risk of currency devaluation and capital outflow caused by a strong us dollar.Under the current background,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the characteristics of the cyclical fluctuation of the us dollar,the division of regional system and its impact on cross-border capital flows.Based on the monthly data from October 2006 to June 2018,this paper divided the us dollar index into cycles,and used the theoretical model and MSVAR model to analyze the asymmetric effect of the us dollar periodic fluctuations on China's cross-border capital flows.The research shows that the change of dollar index has gone through three cycles and is now in the third uptrend cycle of dollar.The change of dollar index has certain stability and periodicity.There is an asymmetric effect of interest rate spread between China and the United States on cross-border capital flows.When there is no panic and risk aversion among investors,the change of interest rate spread will not cause large-scale cross-border capital flows.The impact of the us dollar index on cross-border capital flows has a certain time lag,and the appreciation of the us dollar will trigger cross-border capital outflow,and the impact lasts longer than the spread shock.The impact of VIX index and RMB exchange rate on cross-border capital flows is weak,but it shows an asymmetric feature.The effect of dollar appreciation on capital outflow in the strong cycle is obviously stronger than that in the weak cycle,indicating that the impact of dollar appreciation on China's cross-border capital flows may be greater under the third strong cycle,and we should prudently deal with it and make reasonable policies and economic plans.