Research On The Working Capital Risk Pre-warning In Manufacturing Industry Based On Value Chain

China’s economy is in a period of transition.And consumer demand is slowdown,which makes the manufacturing industries in an increasing fierce competition.However the nature of competition is the competition of customer or the customer’s value.So the original "push" production and management mode has not adapted to manufacturing industries,and consumer oriented "pull" production and management mode is more advantageous to avoid risk and create customer value.Therefore,in order to improve the value of the companies,working capital management based on the value chain is the direction of the manufacturing industry in the future.Firstly,this paper analyzes and summarizes the research status of the working capital management evaluation theory,working capital risk assessment theory and the others,briefly analyzes the necessity and direction of improving the those two theory.Secondly,according to analyzing the basic content of working capital management evaluation theory based on value chain and traditional working capital risk assessment indexes system.Then clarify the relationship between working capital management and working capital risk assessment based on the resource input,consumption and recovery in the value chain,which laid the theoretical basis of this paper.Thirdly,combined with the working capital classification based on value chain to construct the working capital risk assessment indexes system and working capital management evaluation indexes system on value chain.Lastly,this paper selects the Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed 1362 manufacturing enterprises as subjects,and select the main component analysis of the sample data in 2016 applying the SPSS 22.0 software,to build the working capital risk assessment model for distinguishing the healthy companies from high-risk companies.Then pick up 100 sample data from the binary classification company,using the discriminant analysis of 2013-2015 three years of 100 sample data to construct the risk early warning model of working capital,the other selected 100 sample data used for testing the model accuracy.The test shows that the forecast accuracy of the working capital risk warning model can reach over 90%.We find out that the structure proportion of working capital is closely related to the security of working capital in working capital input management evaluation indexes.The structure proportion of working capital in working capital input management evaluation indexes is closely related to the liquidity of working capital in consumption management evaluation indexes,and it is also closely related to quality of the working capital in recovery management evaluation indexes.The internal relationship of the recovery management evaluation indexes shows that phenomenon,which the manufacturing industries always occupy the working capital of the upstream raw material suppliers along the external value chain.The wastage rates of the working capital is closely related to the quality of the working capital in recovery management evaluation indexes.It indicates that because of the inventory backlog,falling prices,depreciation and losses,the manufacturing industries is generally shifting the shortage of the working capital to upstream suppliers.