A Study On The Income Method Revision Of Cyclical Company Valuation From The Perspective Of Macroeconomic Factors

Most of the cyclical industries belong to the traditional pillar industries,which play an indispensable role in the national economic system.With the in-depth promotion of "supply-side" reform in China,the transformation and upgrading of periodic industries is accelerated,mergers and acquisitions are frequent,which make the valuation demand of periodic companies prominent,and the reasonable and reliable evaluation of periodic companies has become a key issue at present.The development trend of cyclical industry is closely related to the macroeconomic operation.In addition,China's economy is affected by the global economy,and the economic operation is complex and diverse,which makes the valuation of cyclical companies further become a difficult problem.It is common to use income method to evaluate periodic companies,but periodic companies need to revise the traditional income method in order to obtain relatively reasonable valuation results.Based on the perspective of macroeconomic factors,this paper modifies the valuation of periodic corporate earnings in order to improve the rationality of the valuation.In this paper,when combing the relevant literature at home and abroad,it is found that in the study of periodic corporate valuation,there are more qualitative analysis emphasizing the impact of macroeconomic importance,but the quantitative analysis of macroeconomic impact is more limited.Therefore,this paper attempts to quantify the impact of macroeconomic factors,and introduces the quantitative value into the revision of the periodic corporate income method.On the one hand,this paper puts forward that the income,income growth rate and discount rate of periodic companies are taken as explanatory variables,and the corresponding macroeconomic factors are selected as explanatory variables according to the existing research,and a multiple linear regression model is established.Then the H-P filtering method is used to analyze the regression significant macroeconomic indexes,and the corresponding macroeconomic variation values are separated.In order to evaluate the revised value of periodic companies,this paper combines the impact measures obtained by the regression model and calculates the quantitative value of macroeconomic factors,and incorporates them into the income method model.On the other hand,the article uses the case analysis method,takes the petrochemical industry SH listed company as an example,selects the 2006-2017 as the sample time span,and incorporates the above income method valuation revision idea into it.The FCFE two-stage model is used to evaluate the sample companies,in order to test the application effect of the evaluation correction idea and put forward some relevant application suggestions.Through the research,this paper draws the following conclusions:(1)Macroeconomic factors have a certain impact on the income,income growth rate and discount rate of cyclical companies;And the impact of macroeconomic indicators on different parameters is not the same;(2)In order to quantify the impact of macroeconomic indicators on the valuation of cyclical companies,the combination of multiple regression analysis and H-P filtering method can be used;(3)The revision idea that bringing the influence of macroeconomic factors into the valuation framework is beneficial to improve the rationality and scientificity of the cyclical corporate value by income approach.