Research On The Difficulties And Solutions Of Scenario Analysis In Business Valuation

The impact of uncertain events and unexpected events on enterprises in the world is becoming increasingly prominent.The traditional value assessment methods that have been used in the past have made it more difficult to predict and evaluate the future status of enterprises.Scenario analysis is based on a focus on future changes and this method can help solve this problem.In view of this,it is of theoretical and practical significance to apply the scenario analysis method to the business valuation reasonably.Based on the existing research,this paper firstly combs the relevant theories of scenario analysis and its application in business valuation,and analyzes the application steps,application models and applicable industries of the method in business valuation.Secondly,the problem of scenario analysis applied to the business valuation is clarified and analyzed,that is,the problem of future scenario construction and scenario probability determination,and explore possible solutions.In the future scenario construction,it is proposed to identify and sort the internal and external parameters affecting value through scenario axis,sensitivity analysis,PESTLE,etc.,to develop and construct a scenario framework;in terms of scenario probability determination,combined with micro-cases,it is proposed to adopt a probabilistic tree method,financial information analysis method and Markov chain-based cross-impact analysis method are used to estimate the scenario probability.Finally,through the analysis of the case,the application of scenario analysis method in business valuation is simulated,and relevant suggestions are further proposed for its application difficulties and solutions.Through this research,the following conclusions:(1)Scenario analysis method is especially suitable for business valuation of cyclical industry and growth industry,and there are big differences between internal and external driving factors in different industries;(2)Future scenario construction and scenario probability determination are difficult problems for scenario analysis applied to business valuation;(3)Identifying the internal parameters of the impact value by using the scenario axis and sensitivity analysis,and then combining the external driving factors to establish the coordinate axes,which is conducive to constructing different scenarios and cross-impact analysis.The method of Markov chain-based cross-impact analysis can effectively reduce the subjectivity of probability determination and improve the scientificity of scenario probability estimation.