The Impact Of Exchange Rate,Export Control And Savings Rate On Sino-us Trade Imbalance

With the normalization of trade development between China and the United States,the mutual trade dependence between the two countries has also increased.However,the US trade deficit with China has increased year by year.Especially after China's accession to the WTO,the trade deficit has expanded dramatically.In 2018,the Trump administration announced the addition of punitive tariffs on Chinese products.Since then,the curtain of Sino-US trade war has been opened.The increasing trade imbalance has had a great impact on China's export trade.The economy of the world.Therefore,it is of great significance to analyze the relevant factors of Sino-US trade imbalance and explore the feasibility of Sino-US trade tending to develop steadily.The academic community has conducted extensive research on the trade imbalance between China and the United States.In the study of most scholars,some believe that there is no causal relationship between the RMB exchange rate and the China and United States' s trade imbalance.Some believe that the appreciation of the RMB can significantly improve the trade imbalance;There are other scholars who study trade imbalances who ignore the exchange rate issue and analyze the relationship between trade imbalances in isolation from the savings rate,trade structure,labor costs,and export controls.In view of the conclusions of other scholars,this paper firstly uses the normative research method to select the differences between the real exchange rate of RMB,export control and national savings rate based on the factors related to trade imbalances based on the analysis and analysis of existing literature.These factors explore their relevance to the trade imbalance between China and the United States,and theoretically explain the impact mechanism of these related factors on Sino-US trade imbalances through the use of different exchange rate transfer theories,international trade theory and trade structure theory;Secondly,the GARCH model is used to estimate the volatility of the real exchange rate.The stability test,cointegration test,Granger causality test,VAR model and error correction model are used to test the relationship between variables.In the process of empirical analysis,this paper selects the American statistical data and the Chinese statistical data respectively for empirical test,hoping to comprehensively and objectively analyze the relationship between the above factors and the Sino-US trade imbalance.According to the empirical analysis of the statistics of China and the United States,the conclusions are different.The empirical test of US statistics can find that there is a positive correlation between trade imbalance and real exchange rate,export control and savings rate,but with real exchange rate fluctuations.The rate has a weak negative correlation;the empirical analysis of China's statistical data can also find that there is a positive relationship between the trade imbalance between China and the United States and the real exchange rate,the real exchange rate volatility,export controls,and the national savings rate.The specific analysis is shown below.Based on the conclusions drawn,combined with the development of Sino-US trade relations analyzed in the previous section,this paper gives policy recommendations from the macro and micro perspectives and looks forward to the development of future trade relations between China and the United States.