The Trend Of RMB Exchange Rates And Its Effects On Import And Export Trade

After some great reforms of RMB exchange rate, the value of RMB is being under appreciation after2005. By the traditional theory, the depreciation of exchange rate can lead to the decrease of foreign trade. However in fact the depreciation of RMB exchange rate cannot result in the decrease of our trade, but strangely the trade still moves up shapely. So the study----how dose the RMB exchange rate impact the foreign trade----has become the focal point. But the researches are usually based on single point:either RMB nominal exchange rate or RMB real effective exchange rate, the research based on the different kinds of exchange rates and the trade between different countries or areas are very few in number. That is to say, studies that different rates affect the trade between the same countries or areas and that the same rate affects the trade between the different countries or areas are relatively seldom been researched. So the article seizes this opportunity and starts its research from the two key points, the different exchange rates of RMB and the trade between different countries or areas.Firstly, the article reviews the literature on RMB exchange rate regime and China’s import and export trade, and then look back the similar issue between exchange rate of JPY and the trade of Japan in1980s, and also regard the similar phenomenon as a good reference for China to handle the same economic problems.Secondly, on the based of analysis of the system and reform of RMB exchange rate the article studies the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the nominal rates of the RMB against the USD the JPY and the EUR and then analyzes the trend and differences of these RMB exchange rates. And then the third chapter studies three problems:the first one, the influence of RBER to the whole export and import trade of China; the second one, the influence of RMB bilateral real exchange rate (RBER) against the USD (the JPY and the EUR) to the bilateral trade balance of China with America (Japan and Euro Zone), and also the article compares these above influences; the third one, the research on the paradox that the results deviate from theoretical expectations based on the theory of Marshall-Lerner Condition and J-curve.And then in the fourth chapter through the co-integration test, Granger causality test and other econometric analysis method, from two aspects of RMB nominal exchange rate and RMB real bilateral exchange rate, the article respectively studies the influence of the RMB exchange rate to the bilateral trade balance of China with America Japan and Euro Zone. At the end the article draws these conclusions:the first one, the bilateral trade balance of China with America is affected most notably by RMB nominal exchange rate against the USD; the secondly one, the bilateral trade balance of China with Euro Zone is affected most notably by RMB nominal exchange rate against the EUR; the third one, the bilateral trade balance of China with Japan is affected most notably by RMB bilateral real exchange rate against the JPY.Finally, the fifth chapter consists the basic conclusions of this paper, and also has discussed and explained the problem that the affect of the appreciation of RMB rate to the export trade flow deviates from the theoretical expectations.