Research On The Influencing Factors Of Expected Return Rate Of China's Basic Industry Trust Products

The issuance of the Guiding Opinions on Maintaining the Strength of Shortcomings in the Infrastructure Field by the General Office of the State Council has strengthened the financial support for the projects under construction in China.As an important financing tool,trust can participate in infrastructure industry construction more flexibly.Under the background of deepening the reform of financial supply side and financial support for the development of real economy,basic industry trust has the characteristics of obvious policy relevance and gradual innovation of business model,such as increasing investment in PPP projects,developing basic industry investment funds,exploring asset backed securities,etc.In the process of development and innovation of basic industry trust,it is helpful to understand the uniqueness of basic industry trust deeply by studying the influencing factors of expected return of basic industry trust products,and to provide reference value for investors and trust companies.Firstly,based on the statistics of trust industry data in the past ten years,referring to a large number of literature and reports,this paper analyses the current situation and existing problems of China's basic industry trust.Subsequently,from the macroeconomic factors,policy factors and product characteristics factors,the factors affecting the expected return of basic industry trust products are analyzed in detail.In order to analyze the influence of product characteristics,a multiple regression model was established,and the conclusion was drawn that the expected return rate of trust products in basic industries was positively correlated with the actual size and duration of product raising,and the difference of product issuance places had a significant impact on the expected return rate.In order to analyze the dynamic influence of different macroeconomic factors on the expected return rate,Bayesian VAR model is established.It is concluded that the expected return rate of basic industry trust products has strong historical inertia and is most affected by the interbank mortgage repurchase rate among macroeconomic factors.The interest rate in macroeconomic factors has a greater impact on the expected return of products,which indicates that the pricing of trust products in basic industries has strong market activity.Finally,according to the conclusions of the study,this paper puts forward relevant suggestions for investors and trust companies respectively.