Study On The Economic Growth Effect Of Financial Pressure On Fiscal Policy

In 2008,the financial crisis broke out in the United States,and then quickly affected other countries in the world.China was also not immune: the stock market fluctuated sharply,trading volume shrank rapidly,banks cut down credit substantially,the real effective exchange rate index of RMB continued to rise,and systemic financial risks accumulated.In addition to the financial market,China's macro-economy has also been affected: the growth rate of gross national product has declined,the unemployment rate of urban residents has risen,and the gross domestic product of industrial enterprises has declined.China has taken measures such as the "4 trillion" rescue plan,structural reform on the supply side and structural tax reduction successively,which effectively mitigated the impact of the financial crisis on China's economy in the short term,stimulated macroeconomic growth by expanding domestic demand,but also brought about problems such as inflation and insufficient economic development momentum.With China's accession to the WTO,international trade has become more frequent,coupled with the development of economic globalization,the relationship between China and other countries in the world has become closer.The fluctuation of the international financial market has also affected China's financial market,breaking the original stable state and increasing the uncertainties of China's financial market and national economic development.Therefore,in order to improve the efficiency of policy implementation of government decision-making departments and avoid the uncertainty brought by financial market pressure on economic development,it is necessary to accurately analyze the economic growth effect of fiscal policy under financial pressure.This paper chooses 18 indicators of four financial sub-markets: banking market,real estate market,stock market and external financial market,and calculates China's systemic financial pressure index with CRITIC empowerment method.The results show that:(1)The four financial sub-markets selected in this paper can cover all aspects of the financial field,and the monthly frequency can reflect the financial pressure state of our country in real time and sensitively.(2)There is a certain relationship between the change of China's systemic financial pressure and international financial events.The rising and falling stages of financial pressure basically coincide with the time of important economic events in China,which shows that the systematic financial pressure index constructed in this paper is effective.This paper uses the maximum share method from the empirical point of view.This method can accurately identify the economic effects caused by policy shocks.Combined with the structural vector autoregressive model,a SVAR model is established to analyze the economic growth effects of the government's fiscal policies under the background of financial pressure in China's macro-economy.The conclusions are as follows:(1)Generally speaking,the fluctuation of financial pressure has a great difference in the direction of economic variables.In the stage of financial pressure fluctuation,financial pressure has a negative effect on economic variables,while in the stage of financial pressure stabilization,financial pressure has a positive effect on economic variables,and the response has a certain time lag.(2)During the financial crisis,the financial pressure will be greater,which will restrain economic growth,while during the period of economic stability,financial market pressure will stimulate economic growth.This shows that the periodicity and phases of the economic and financial environment will have certain changes in the impact of economic growth.(3)The financial pressure index constructed in this paper is robust.Replacing the financial pressure index with the pressure index of each financial sub-market for the same empirical test,that is,robustness test,the empirical results are replaceable.Based on the conclusions of this study,this paper puts forward some policy recommendations: first,to control the financial market and turn pressure into a driving force;secondly,to ensure the effectiveness and innovation of policy implementation;finally,to control the sources of financial pressure and optimize the financial structure.