Shadow Banking,interest Rate Liberalization And Bank Loan-to-deposit Ratio

After the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008,shadow banking attracted global attention.In recent years,shadow banking in China also shows rapid growth.However,existing research literature on shadow banking mainly focuses on the risks of shadow banking,while there are few analyses on the rationality of shadow banking and the role of financial structure optimization.This paper chooses to focus on the positive role of shadow banking.The specific research content is the impact of shadow banking on bank loan-to-deposit ratio and interest rate marketization,and analyzes the promotion of interest rate marketization by the emergence and development of shadow banking and the improvement of bank loan-to-deposit ratio.Exploring the positive role of shadow banking can help us fully understand and understand shadow banking and provide theoretical basis for guiding the development of shadow banking and improving the regulatory measures.This article first from the concrete shadow banking operation tool for the analysis of operation mechanism of the shadow banking in our country,and then collected data on China's shadow banking,bank loan ratio and generalizes the development and status quo of interest rate liberalization,then from the enterprise financing choice behavior analysis of the development of the shadow banking of bank loan interest rate marketization,from Banks to lend behavior is introduced into the shadow banking mechanism of influence on bank lending and deposit.In the empirical part of this paper,taking between January 2006 and December 2018,the monthly data as the foundation,first of all,through the establishment of vector autoregressive model(VAR)empirical test of the development of China's shadow banking for bank loan amount and the influence of interest rate liberalization,then through establishing autoregressive distributed lag model(ADL)empirically shadow Banks scale effects on bank LDR.The research results show that:(1)from the perspective of stock,the stock size of shadow banking in China was about 44.14 trillion yuan in 2018,while it was only 0.64 trillion yuan in 2006,an increase of 69.22 times in 13 years.From the perspective of increment,the scale of shadow banking in China grew rapidly between 2008 and 2013,with the increment of 6.97 trillion yuan in 2013 reaching the highest level in history.After 2014,the increment of shadow banking scale decreased year by year,and even showed negative growth in 2018.(2)the development of shadow banking has a long-term negative impact on the deposit balance of financial institutions,which is due to the fact that China's bank deposit interest rate has not been fully market-oriented yet,and bank deposits begin to flow under the squeeze of high yield products of shadow banking.(3)the development of shadow banking has a positive impact on the loan balance of financial institutions,which indicates that the development of shadow banking can promote the increase of bank loans.(4)the development of the shadow banking can promote bank LDR,this has been handled by VAR model,the empirical results show that the autoregressive distributed lag model,according to the results of an additional unit of the shadow banking scale(taking natural logarithms)can make bank loan than 0.041,ascension through multiple phase accumulation,shadow Banks scale of bank loan than total promotion effect is 0.317.This shows that the emergence and development of shadow banking destroys the foundation of Banks' reluctance to lend and improves the use efficiency of social funds.(5)the development of shadow banking has a long-term negative impact effect on the interest rate spread between the shadow banking system and the bank loan interest rate,pushing the bank loan interest rate closer to the shadow banking system interest rate.Because the pricing mechanism of the shadow banking interest rate is completely market-oriented,the degree of marketization of the bank loan interest rate is also improved.(6)the increase in deposits and loans of financial institutions has a positive impact on the scale of shadow banking,indicating that the development of China's economy and finance has also boosted the growth of the scale of shadow banking.Finally,the article puts forward policy Suggestions about shadow banking development:in the real economy,we can't only focus on risk of shadow banking,discusses the right and the rationality of its existence,existence and development of the shadow banking on our country's economic development,on the whole financial system construction has the positive role of many sided,it should not be excessive limit shadow banking,and should promote the healthy development of the shadow;As a product of financial innovation,shadow banking has huge advantages in attracting and cultivating talents and applying new technologies.Commercial Banks have rich experience in risk management and should promote their integrated development and mutual learning.The positive role of shadow banking cannot conceal its risks.We should not relax our vigilance against its risks.We should formulate sound laws and regulations and establish a comprehensive regulatory system.