Research On Early Warning Of Stock Market Crisis Based On Investor Emotion

Based on the 2015 stock market crisis in China,this paper takes the impact of the change of investor sentiment on the securities market as the theme of the study,and constructs the investor sentiment index.And the stock market crisis early warning model including investor sentiment index is analyzed.In this paper,through a more innovative mode of thinking,from the perspective of investor sentiment to study the early warning of China's stock market crisis,and through a large number of empirical tests to determine the main body,draw the corresponding conclusions: first of all,In the measurement standard of investor sentiment index,this paper deals with the 11 alternative variables originally selected,and finally determines the correlation test between the selected five variables and the CSI 300 index.It shows that it has an effective explanation for the CSI 300 index and meets the basic requirements of constructing the investor sentiment index for stock market crisis prediction.Second,comparing the investor sentiment index After the corresponding correlation with the CSI 300 index,the relationship between the selected independent variables and dependent variables is analyzed in detail,and the results show the research value of investor mood changes in stock crisis early warning.It also provides the corresponding data support for the reasonable empirical basis.Finally,Logit regression model,as the model of stock market crisis early warning selected in this paper,reflects its unique analysis model.Through the model,the selected data are generally considered and analyzed,and the stability of the selected data is determined.The empirical results show that the emotion index of independent variable investors The regression coefficient of the number SENTt-1 is positive,which shows that the investor sentiment index has a positive effect on the stock market crisis,and compares it with the early warning effect of the macroeconomic index on the stock market crisis.The results show that the stock market crisis early warning model with investor sentiment index has better early warning effect.The conclusions obtained in this paper have a good reference significance for investors in the process of implementing investment decisions.The occurrence of stock market crisis is often accompanied by a large number of release of investor sentiment,so investors should actively pay attention to the volatility of the market and ensure that the investment means can be adjusted timely and effectively when the market style changes.