Research On Stock Market Crisis Early Warning Scheme Based On Comprehensive Indicators Of Investor Sentiment

As an important secondary financial trading market,the stock market is of great significance to the stable development of enterprises and the economic environment.And in the present stage of our country stock market development is not yet mature,there is a lot of irrational market of individual investors,institutional investors cannot have good guide effect,this will lead to irrational emotional factors exist in the market,when the mood is deviating from the normal range is too large,will lead to market risk,thus likely to lead to the outbreak of the crisis.The stock market crisis will bring a series of market reactions,which will have a huge negative impact on the economic environment.Therefore,in China's stock market,it is very necessary to establish an effective early-warning plan for the stock market crisis based on investor sentiment,which can help investors reduce losses and provide regulators with tools to regulate the stock market in advance,so as to reduce the severity of the stock market crisis and its negative impact on the economic environment.Based on the research of investor sentiment index,this paper constructs the comprehensive index of investor sentiment and designs the early-warning scheme of stock market crisis.The new composite index of investor sentiment is composed of p/e ratio,turnover rate,financing balance,number difference between new and new stocks,relative strength index,convergence and divergence rate,sentiment index,psychological line and trading volume ratio,and is calculated by principal component analysis method.Then,based on the characteristics of SSE index,the EEMD model is used to calculate the forecast period length.Then,according to the EWS model,calculate the decline according to the price data of stock index,and construct the decline index,so as to identify the crisis and establish the warning signal.According to investor sentiment comprehensive indicators and early warning signal to construct the Logit model,set up the stock market crisis early warning,will improve after the stock market crisis early warning plan comparison with previous warning,found based on investor sentiment synthesis index stock market crisis pre-warning scheme can more effectively predict the stock market crisis happened.Research conclusion of this paper show that investor sentiment is an important factor of the stock market crisis,based on a comprehensive new investor sentiment indicators of stock market crisis warning scheme can more effectively predict the stock market crisis,compared with the existing stock market crisis early warning scheme has obvious improvement,to provide investors and regulators to stock market crisis forecasting tools more effectively.Based on the early-warning scheme of stock market crisis established in this paper,investors can timely adjust their investment strategies when issuing the early-warning signal to avoid huge losses.When supervising and controlling the stock market,the regulators should pay attention to the change of investor sentiment,pay attention to the warning signal issued by the early warning plan in time,and promote the stable development of the stock market.